Good morning, Friend
A couple of things for you today. First up a re-cap of my York stats/video, and also the list of today's 'qualifiers' to use as you please.
There then follows a 'tip' at Worcester from my Members' posts. I mainly just focus on C3+, 3m+ chases now and it's much quieter at this time of year for those. I've been going through the motions a bit this summer, transitioning to the daily members' content being all about the jumps from Oct-April moving forward, spending my May-Sept doing other things racing/content related and trying to be more productive (they'll likely be more free posts/videos etc). This is the final summer of daily posts, 5+ years of those, 363 days a year (Christmas day/eve off), has finally got to me.
In any case, with winter jumps in mind, national-hunt pro punter Adam Norman will be back in the daily tipping hot seat also, which should be fun. We may not have much else to cheer this winter more generally but at least us jumps fans should have something to smile about. Hopefully this shift/focus may excite some of you and you'll join in for the winter, but that's for another day.
However, that's a few weeks away yet, in the meantime, with any luck my dreaded 'curse of the email' doesn't strike, but then I've landed on a 12YO chaser, so anything could happen!
Let's crack on...
First up, YORK.
You can find my York Trainer Angles + 'How I did it' video HERE >>>
Today's Qualifiers
(the 'H' refers to HorseRaceBase ratings, if horse is Top 4 rated, which can be a decent guide, and help with shortlisting also, but plenty of winners outside this, hopefully a few below but we shall see how they do over the four days...)
1.50 – Dakota Gold (any, 9/1< best) 8/1
2.25 – Chaldean (AB, 16/1<) H3 11/2
2.25 – Local Dynasty (CA< 10/1<) H1 2/1
3.00 – Secret State H1 5/2 / Walk of Stars 5/1 (CA< 10/1<)
3.35 – Native Trail (CA< 10/1<) H2 15/2
4.45 – Attagirl (TJC) 14/1
5.20 – Cathy Come Home (TJC) 9/1
5.20 – Silencer H1 9/1
*
Chase Tip/Preview
#1 5.32 Worc – Peregrine Run – 2 point win – 6/1 (bet365) 11/2 (BV) 5/1 (gen)
write up…
Well thankfully I’m still getting a buzz when opening up a 3m+ C2 handicap chase, even at this time of year. The start of Chepstow’s Silver Trophy meeting can hurry up, for all York is a fine week on the flat, the last proper big Flat Festival really, maybe in my head marking the mental transition over to the proper stuff! 🙂
Even as a Veteran I’ve concluded Peregrine Run is just better than these, has been showing a higher level of form on recent starts than anything else in here, arrives in form, will appreciate this step back up in trip and potentially this more galloping track, with a long straight in which he can get motoring. I think he’ll outclass them and he won’t have a better chance to win another chase. This looks weaker than his last two trips to the UK and much weaker than anything he’d face back home. Hopefully he can take advantage. I thought he looked overpriced to do so.
He arrives in form and so does his yard – Peter Fahey 7/24, 11p in the last 30 days, 3/9,4p in the last 14 days, 64% rivals beaten. He’s sent three horses to the course in the last 5 years and two have placed. Trainer/jockey are 4/18, 6p together, 2/6 in the last 30 days, and Sam E is 1/1 on the horse, his useful 3lb helping take a bit of weight off also.
His profile – well clearly he’s not an unexposed/more to come type, but there’s nothing in here with that sort of profile really and the rest of them don’t look that well handicapped and/or they’ve all got some sort of question to answer, whether wellbeing, or whether they’re up to this level – especially if a proper mid 130s horse like Peregrine, Runs up to form. He does know where the winning post is, what a horse. 18/61, 34p in his career to date, 10/28, 16p over fences, 2/9,5p in handicap chase, one of those a close 4th in the Galway Plate of 2019 off 157. For all that was 3 years ago and he’ll have regressed a bit since, nothing in here could dream of running such a race.
Looking at his more recent form… three starts back he was a decent running on 3/15 in the Mayo National around Ballinrobe, the track prob tight enough for him, but two lightly raced chasers in front, a Mullins winner (who’s since won again over hurdles), the 2nd nearly won a deep G3 3m handicap hurdle at THE Grand National Meeting a few starts before – good horse. He travelled and jumped well that day as if plenty of enthusiasm remained for the game. Those Irish handicap chases/’nationals’ at this time of year would generally be much hotter than anything run over here during the summer (bar a couple of possible exceptions, inc The Summer Plate)
They’ve since tried to plunder some UK cash, and he’s run with credit, in better races than this for me. Well, Cartmel may be comparable but they had buckets loads of rain, it had gone on the softer side all over, and it was over 2m5f – outpaced a bit, track not ideal, but he stayed on all the way to the line, posting an RPR 142. The winner there, Dr Sanderson, returned to form, was well handicapped, and won a shade cosily on his next start also, some substance there. He was then pitched into The Summer Plate, of which this is not. Again, over that 2m5/6f, around there, and at the pace they went, he could never quite hold a position but he stayed on well to the line in 5th. The winner is smart at this time of year, winning it for a second time (being aimed at The Grand Sefton again), the second unexposed/chucked in, the 3rd also of Bowen’s would win on his next start dropped into a C3, also unexposed over fences, the 4th didn’t run too badly at the Galway Festival in the Blazers Chase, poss not staying the trip, bang there 2 out. PR was 5th there, those front 5 miles clear of the rest. It’s solid form to my eyes, even a repeat of that run may be good enough against these, while enjoying this longer distance.
So, hopefully he arrives in similar form. He will find it easier to hold a position and lay up with the pace today I think, lesser opposition for me. Hopefully he can get another well deserved win and can beat them up good and proper. It is his first run here, they have also had a fair bit of rain overnight but I’ve got to trust the Clerk – he says the course has taken it well, it still remains Good (good to soft in places) and it should dry out a little through the day. If it rides like a bog, so be it. No excuses for him really on paper, for all the others in here wouldn’t have wanted the rain either. Had it stayed away and were PR 8/9 YO, I would be even more bullish.
I didn’t like the rest – Oscar M looks very short for me and worth taking on. He is tricky but does arrive in form, but lost a C4 handicap chase LTO off 115 (although to an unexposed one, but rated 109 going into it), indicating this mark is clearly no gift and I don’t think he could have done what the selection has on his last three starts, he’s just not in that class. But he has a light weight and is only 8, so has that on his side of course. Maybe younger legs will in the day but it’s the time of year the old boys can get more competitive. If PR doesn’t run his race, I do think Oscar could be the one to capitalise, as he is in form, should run his race and likes it around here. That could be enough.
I don’t know which Grand S will turn up, well handicapped on some form, but first start 140 days, first start after a wind op (another one, his 4th), no hood on, 0/9,0p beyond 19.5f, 0/5,0p without the hood. I’m not sure what form the yard are in as they’ve had hardly any runners. He does have the odd question, inc fitness and stamina – however he is the other one in here with a shade of back-class, only PR could match some of his better form, but he does have to step forward and show it – too many questions for me at the price. Hopefully he pulls his chance away, but I do fear him to some extent if running to his very best but I’ll live with it at the odds.
The rest are a s so so bunch really, C3 animals, but then maybe this is a glorified C3 given the general form on offer. It is very much a 'summer' C2. A few have been running well enough. I’m not sure many are that well handicapped, the likes of Organdi and Irish P looking out of sorts at the moment. Bbold was in form when last seen but he needs more, his best form shouldn’t be good enough to take this unless a couple underperform, never impossible.
Anyway, I’m on the right one for me on paper pre race, come win, lose or tailed off. On recent form he should be Fav for me, maybe his age the reason he’s not as yet and that’s clearly a factor – but he’s been showing more than enough on recent starts to indicate he retains enough ability to take a race like this. I wouldn’t wade into this type come Oct/Nov, but these summer chases are a bit weaker. Think Mr Mafia.
Pace wise… not loads on paper, Oscar can race up there and may try and dictate but can slot in handy also, and I can’t think Brian will blast off. Bbold can be prom, as can Red Happy, PR usually tracks the pace, but I wonder if they may go sod it, use his class/stamina, and be much more handy. Even at his age he may lob along at a pace around here which naturally has him on the front end.
Fingers crossed,
All the best, Josh
