I'll jump straight to it, today's free tips (3m+ handicap chases) plus some reflections on yesterday... from today's free post...
Free Tips
(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/106,32p, +50)
1.05 Kelso - Borders National
Total Assets - 1 point win - 10/1 (gen)
Bright Prospect - 1 point win - 25/1 (betfS/PP/BetV/888) 22/1 20/1 (most places)
as of 10.04, write up...
Total Assets - I thought 10s offered a shade of value and i'd have had her a couple of points shorter. It took connections far too long to run her over a marathon trip LTO but she relished it and bolted up. Yes it was a weak enough race but she loves it around here, has nothing on her back , and is unexposed over this distance. Of those with winning form at this trip she is the one that is most in form. She is unexposed over this distance and there could be more to come. The danger of course is that she finds this too hot and gets too far detached. She usually jumps well and she tries her hardest. I know the horse will put it in for me. She will come from the clouds I think but the hope is that plenty of these fall in a hole or have clattered one too many fences! She generally a sound jumper and I thought she could follow up again here. I'll pay to find out at 10s
Bright Prospect - a poke but to my eyes i thought well worth a go at these lofty odds. I'd hope to see some money comes but he arrives fit, in form, and he runs over 24/25f as if he's well worth a go over a marathon trip. He's a superb jumper at his best and if he can lob along near the front end or just off any pace setters, I should get a good spin, at least until 25f or so. Who knows what will happen after that but I can dream of him leading as they turn for home, his jumping keeping him ahead, and just galloping out to the line. This trainer tends to target Kelso and Perth with her handicappers and this one has a chase win at the track to his name already. He was a lively outsider here and I wanted one onside who 'could' improve for the step up in trip -it's not a good idea in my book to always be backing 'been there and done it' horses, albeit that's a more solid approach in marathon chases, but i've got the best of both today. Fingers crossed they can both out-run their odds.
I was happy to take on the top 4 in the market who are between 11/2-13/2- given the questions they all have I didn't think any of them were overpriced. I won't be shocked clearly if one wins but I can leave them at those odds and be more than content if one bolts up, no bother. They all have something to prove now though.
I was happy to leave the rest at the odds, albeit Dancing Shadow stays and will like the ground- he does just look out of form to my eyes but 14s isn't the worse price in the world. I won't mention the rest, for fear of missing out the winner as with yesterday's Becher - idiot.
This looks the best renewal of this race for some time and it will be a cracker. Best of luck with whatever you're on and may all horses and riders come home safe, as always.
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Yesterday was a poor day- it always is for me when a 16s+ shot wins a big handicap that I didn't consider fully - that's two weekends in a row now. I wasn't anywhere near Walk In The Mill which given his progressive enough profile over fences was a tad silly, and the form of his trainer. I based plenty of my assumptions on the ground being very testing and in truth I don't think it was as heavy as I thought, still soft enough though. His PU at Haydock in heavy put me off a tad and I wasn't sure he'd stay 26f around here in testing ground- but it was more of an unknown and he had hacked up over 2m4f in the slop before. He'd run well on his seasonal reappearance and in hindsight that Ascot run where he chased home Gold Present and Frodon was decent form. He ran as if the trip wouldn't be a problem - I thought it would on the ground. I got that wrong but it's always wise to reflect. A shame Regal Flow took a fence with him as he was starting to latch onto them and stay on, albeit a long way out still, but you have to jump. Crosshue Boy travelled well for a long way but did clout a fence or two. He's worth keeping an eye on back over regulation fences as he has more wins in him. Maybe that trip on that ground taxed him also, but his jumping was the issue sadly and I thought that may be a strong point! The less said about Actinpieces the better. Not the best of days but I have plenty of those given the odds I play at and the competitive nature of the races. It's all about profit/ROI long term at RTP towers :)
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Best of luck,
Josh
