Hello Friend
I'm off to Uttoxeter for the afternoon with the intention of cheering Really Super into the winner's enclosure. There's some thoughts on her, and a 'test chase tip' on the same card, also trained by Amy. I'm trying to turn myself into a handicap chase expert. The 3m+ tips have been ticking along well since late Feb when I re-focused, and I've always landed on the odd winner in the big graded staying pots - but i'm trying to expand into other chases. It started ok last Saturday with the Summer Plate winner at 10s and with any luck another one today>>>
REALLY SUPER
She runs in the 4.55 Uttoxeter and i'll be off there for the afternoon with the rest of the syndicate. It's only 1h 50 min train from Liverpool, with the station next to the track. In any case I can't miss her win! :)
In all seriousness I fully expect her to bolt up, if running her race. It's a big drop in class and she'll have come on from LTO (if nothing else, her jumping brain will be better tuned now) Of course that makes the disappointment worse if it's not to be. She's the best horse in the race and for me has the most in hand/class. Had things panned out differently LTO she'd have won, beating 130 animals and scooping 12.5k in the process. She arrives in superb form, as does her trainer after a well-deserved double at Yarmouth (having hit the barn door plenty in recent days). They did all look superb when visiting the yard last weekend and maybe a run is on it's way. I think she'll turn out to be a mid 130s horse, if not better, but she has to go and prove it. Dicky should try and lead, with us tracking him in second. I doubt Bryony will be too far away. I think her mount (the fav) is clearly the one to beat. But she beat horses averaging 109 LTO. If we don't run our race, she should capitalise.
Anyway, fingers crossed! If she hits the front at any point, game over. Sadly she isn't much of a price but that's always the cherry on the cake. I'll be gutted if she doesn't beat this lot.
*
From the members' post...
Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/4,3p,+6)
3.45 Uttox - Mercian King - 1 point win - 7/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 13/2
(as of 08.53)
A reminder that this TEST is me delving into handicap chases shorter than my 'specialism' of 2m7f+ , where over time i'm proven, albeit always room for improvement. I've every confidence in my ability long term in all handicap chases, but I need to prove it over time...
This is more head than heart albeit if the Amy Murphy Uttoxeter double comes in, then happy days! 7s or so is too big for this one here and he does just look solid against this lot. He will have badly needed the run LTO over hurdles, with a 10lb claimer on, and he's twice won on his second start back after a 180+ break. IF he got back to the form of his two runs at Worcester in October he'd have every chance here. His form is solid with those two races in particular working out well, 12 subsequent winners between them. I suspect the break has done him the world of good as he had a busy time of it last year. Jack should sit in 3rd here, tracking Johnson and Scholfield, and will be in a no excuses position if good enough. This mark of 117 should be fine given he was beaten on the nod off 119 four starts back. He gets a first time TT also which may eek out some more improvement. He just looked too big.
Of the rest... well it's open enough but there are plenty of monkeys. New Millennium gets 1st blinkers this time and will try and make all. The 1st CP lit him up LTO and he could over-race here, or they do the trick. He's yet to win LH and did jump out to his right LTO - that makes 5/2 short enough to my eyes. But he's young and arrives in form, as does his yard. Tikkinthebox won't give him an easy time of it on the front though and with any luck they will both do too much. He's got some questions to answer now after his last three runs for me, especially in the context of his price, for all that at his best he could win this.
Vancouver is a monkey but he's unexposed over fences. You're rolling the dice as to whether he's on a going day I think- if he is, then he'd be in with a chance also. But just a few too many niggles with him, and he will make STD work for his fee. Utility needs more albeit the fall LTO wasn't really his fault - but even on his best runs I think there would be a couple stronger in here.
That leaves Malengen who, along with New Millennium, and the selection, i'd have as the most likely winners of this. I didn't think he was overpriced but he's unexposed and did run well LTO. He gets a change of headgear to help him put it all in -another in the monkey category and he was niggled at times LTO. Tom may try and be aggressive on him also - I never understand putting 1st blinkers on horse and holding them up. His jumping was scratchy LTO also but he's entitled to be learning still. However he will need to step up here.
I thought The King was overpriced, and will pay to find out.
*
Best of luck, Josh |
