| Hello Friend
I have just about moved on from not keeping faith in Milansbar, having tipped him the week before in the Welsh National. I came to a quick decision to stick with the same two horses in the Warwick race, before then spending quite a while talking myself out of one of them. The same reasons applied - dour stayer, well handicapped, lightly raced for age, first time headgear (blinkers this time)..in addition this was a much weaker race and Bryony Frost was up. How I haven't rolled the dice at 20s I don't know, given I tipped him the week before. That was a clanger but a few of you who read the write up had a saver on so all wasn't lost. Lessons to learn. Poor.
Moving on to today...
There's an 8/1 poke at Newbury but first a report looking at Kerry Lee, and the two angles that have been followed on the free posts for a few years now..
Onto the tip...
TIPS
(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/12,4p, +12.5)
3.00 Newbury - Millanisi Boy - 1 point win 8/1 (gen)
This is probably one of those races that you shouldn't play in,given it is packed with a fair few unexposed chasers and a few behind that who are not too long in the tooth and could be given a squeak. However, when looking through this, I just thought the selection looked a shade overpriced. He arrives here in form having won well enough LTO in first time CP and this is only his fifth start over fences. He jumped very well the last day and races prominently. Ground conditions are fine and he stays. I also marked up his chance due to his course form - he has run well around here over fences and that is no bad thing. Maybe it will transpire that he isn't good enough and they will go too quickly for him, but I am guessing a bit there. At 8/1 i'll take a chance. The trainer has a solid enough record with LTO winners also, 4/20,11p the last 2 years. He should run his race.
Of the rest...well Indy Five hacked up and may do so again but that was a weak C4 novice handicap at Taunton. Up 12lb this is a bit different. He couldn't have done any more the last day and may be up to it but i didn't think the selection should be more than double the price. Kimberlite Candy took some stoking along LTO but is still open to improvement. He won't get an easy lead here I don't think and has to prove his stamina, which he may do. I didn't think his price was overly generous. He won for my members' Tom Lacey test angle LTO at 8/1, so I can live with him winning today at half those odds. Horatio Hornblower is interesting but is 10 now and can clout a fence. STD and the cheekpieces may help on that front. They may not. No forlorn hope but I fancied the more unexposed profile of the selection, at similar odds. Private Malone is now 0/9 over fences but you could give a squeak I suppose. The yard is in form but he has to prove he truly stays in this ground for me, esp over fences. He hasn't proved he won't as such but he has questions now. 9s may be ok. I can't get Two Smokin Barrels right and it would be just my luck that she wins this, but I have left her. A few questions now but she looks a dour stayer and if they all fall in a hole could pick up the pieces. I never really like backing LTO fallers but no forlorn hope.
So, it looks open enough, but i'm happy to take a stab at this one given his profile and the price.
Good luck whatever you play on, you can make a case for a few!
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You can find today's post, including a Kerry Lee qualifier, HERE>>>
All the best, Josh |
