Hello Friend
Today's free post is repeated below...for the first time in a few weeks i've dipped into my race of choice, a 3m (or further) handicap chase...let's see if the eyes are in working order or a tad rusty....
TIPS
(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018: + 176…2018 free..9/81,23p, +74.5, Members Festival Tips: +101.5)
7.00 Ffos Las
Halo Moon - 1 point win - 9/1 (gen)
Huff And Puff - 1 point win - 10/1 (bet365/unibet/coral) 9/1 (gen)
Blimey this looks tricky, the sort of race it would be easy to avoid, but rarely do I like that course of action in my favourite race type. So, let's have a go, and it's been a few weeks since I had a look at one of these. You could make genuine cases for half the field...
Halo Moon... he is lightly raced for his age and has shaped recently as if he has a 3 mile chase in him. He comes here in form, although the days rest is a slight niggle, but he's run well after breaks before and i thought a repeat of his recent runs would put him right in the mix. I have no idea what the ground will be at Ffos Las in truth...the Clerk suggests they won't get much rain, but you never know. Neither of these selections will mind rain, and may well prefer it. Good is an unknown for this one but I can't say he won't handle it, i just don't know, and in that scenario you want a decent price. I thought the booking of Johnson was intriguing, given trainer/jockey are 4/16,8p in handicap chases when teaming up in the last 5 years. I assume Fehily is injured given his last ride was on the 27th April when falling at Puncy, I must have missed that. I wouldn't mind seeing this horse ridden more aggressively and the Champ does like to be up there if he can, but maybe he'll get instructions to play a waiting game. In any case, I thought there was a smidgen of value in his price, so we shall see!
Huff And Puff...another lightly raced veteran over fences who has been running well, and again, a repeat of recent form should make him competitive. 3m looks well within range and he was staying on well LTO and it will be interesting to see how he goes at this more galloping track. His 7lb claimer is getting better over fences and the horse does like to race up there, which is usually the place to be in any chase. Venetia is 'in form' and again I thought he looked a shade over-priced, on recent efforts, and he is running as if there could be more to come.
There are dangers everywhere... Super Scorpion is a worthy fav based on his course/distance form and his record fresh. Maybe 7s is still a good price. He goes well fresh and in spring/early summer. This may well be the time to catch him. I think this is deeper than the last of the races he won here and he is on a career high mark, but he did hack up when last winning and on that basis this should be within range. He will need to be a1 though and he is usually held up. So, the odd question, but I won't fall off my seat if he wins.
Court King has a chance, and maybe 10s is ok but something niggled at me. He should come on for that last run and can be a bit lazy, but that is him. He does have to prove he's up to this level but I suppose enough places at this class/higher to suggest he has a race like this in him, he is on a career high mark, now 0/6,3p 121+, and is 0/6,2p in the tongue tie, which returns. He is unexposed over fences though and arrives in some sort of form, so I can see the case.
Maybe it is between those 4. I didn't like how the Pipe horse responded to pressure LTO, before then plugging on...he has a stamina niggle now, although he could have 'bounced' LTO, to a point. He is interesting enough but a couple of things to prove. It's possible I haven't mentioned the winner, it's that sort of race.
GL with any bets.
Josh
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