Hello Friend
A tip/race preview from today's members' post. My Daily tips just focus on 3m+ handicap chases, having lost my way for a while earlier in the year, and they've been ticking along since late Feb, +37.5 points or so... in any case hopefully you get something from the write up/how I think about these chases... the last time I emailed you one of these it won, so fingers crossed... :)
Members Daily Tips
(2019: 12/68, 22p +21.5)
3.30 Bangor - Cornish Warrior - 1 point win - 14/1 (gen)
I tipped this one LTO where he didn't run much of a race but given he's 14s here, I wanted to have one more go on him - If he repeated that Ffos Las run, or with any luck that Southwell win 4 starts back in October, he'd out-run these odds and be bang there over the last. He's 8 and this is only the 7th chase of his life and he's up against plenty of older/more exposed legs in this. His run LTO could well indicate he's just out of form but Hexham is unique, he may not have enjoyed travelling that far to the races, the ground may have been sticky and more importantly given that his two chase wins have been on flatter tracks, it could well be he didn't enjoy the up and down nature of the place. That's the excuse I'm using, all in the context of his price. The defeat of Little Windmill in October is solid form in the context of this race, he was going away at the line, the front two miles clear. 'On the figures' that run is equal/better than most in here's recent efforts. While Bangor isn't as flat as Southwell, it's flat enough, and while the trainer doesn't have a great record here, he is 0/13,5p in handicap chases with numerous seconds - I also thought there was a chance Harry is more aggressive on him here, as he is a galloper. After that Southwell win he ran at Cheltenham in a race that was seemingly too deep for him. He was there until around 4 out, but again i'm not sure he ever looked happy at the track but they were probably going too quick for him. He returned in April when no doubt needing the run but the front two there were 117+ horses. The second has run well/won since and the winner was an unexposed Jonjo chaser who capsized for me LTO when I thought 7/4 was a decent price, tut tut.
There's a chance he is being scrubbed along/losing position with 1 mile or so to go here, but at 14s I was happy to roll the dice. There is some rain around- possibly up to 5mm - there's no mention of them having watered, and I don't think good to soft would be an excuse for him, and again he's 14s. Softer conditions would be a question for many in this. If they have over-watered and that amount of rain turns this proper soft/pudding like, that would be frustrating - but one of those things that it seems we just have to accept.
The dangers...
Master Sunrise... well Darran Pearce and the hunter chase fraternity appear to be all over this one. He was 28s last night, 18s/16s for a while this morning and is now 8s. I did throw 5 at him at 18s, but had Darran not emailed his tribe, i'm not sure id' have been near him! Apparently his last two hunter chases can be ignored- he went well for a long way at Chelt before his stamina emptied over that 4m, and LTO was a deep race - won by a 129 horse, 114 was the 3rd. They may have well been going too fast for him the whole way. On some of his better form from last year he is looking well handicapped off 90 but he really needs the 1st time blinkers to work - which they may do. Sean rides for the stable for the first time and with 1st blinkers and the money down, i'd be surprised if he doesn't try to make all, in a race without any consistent front runners. 8s is getting short even for throwaway change but if he's pinging the first 3/4 with 2/3 length lead, and clearly travelling well, he could stay there. Plenty seemingly think he will.
Chase The Wind - another tip from LTO when for me he could have won - no idea why his jockey held on to him for so long, he should have let the handbrake go and ridden him as if he would stay. That was a poor race. His 3m form before that is ok, but he's been outpaced numerous times over that trip in poor races and 6s or so just wasn't big enough, but I wouldn't be surprised if SQ makes more use of him. He could hit the front at some stage and stay there. But, since he came back after a long absence, his finishing efforts are now raising a few questions. But he's solid.
At the prices, those three look the most interesting.
The fav, Steel Wave, may well take this- but he's only raced beyond 2m4f once over fences and does have stamina to prove - as such 5/2 looks short and with 12 st to lug around, i'm happy to take him on. But he's in form and has younger/sounder legs than many. He should run his race which may be all that is needed today. The race LTO wasn't that deep and it was a blanket finish which he wouldn't have won had the leader not veered sharply left. He did stay on there as if this may be his trip now and he looked like a stayer over hurdles in Ireland. But he's 5/2 so he can beat me. You get better 5/2 shots in races like this (unexposed/proven stayers/good jumpers/in form/lone front runners... the latter is key for me if I ever go 'short' again!)
Gamain can take some riding, hasn't been winning great races, and could lose his position around here. He's often looked better RH and has had 50+ days off. He may well run his race though and he should keep plugging away. But, he's 7/2, and doesn't looked overpriced to my eyes.
Deputy Commander - he's interesting but not at what was 5s (drifting) given his profile- his run LTO was after 770 days indicating a serious enough injury. There's a chance he 'bounces' and i'd have been more interested if Sam was here and not at Southwell (decent book of rides for the good Dr and Mr Ralph- Newland's former assistant - who has Master Sunrise in this) This is more his trip and if he builds on that staying effort LTO he would overturn the form with the fav I think. But I didn't want to wade in at that price and we will know more about his well-being after this run. To be as lightly raced as he is aged 10 suggests he's rather brittle and you'd want a bigger price in my view.
Amber Gambler has been out of form for a while, has had a break and returns without his usual headgear. I suppose at 12s he's more interesting that some and he does stay. At his best he has a tad more class than all of these but you're just taking a bit too much on trust, even at that price. With any luck he runs a nice race here, doesn't win, and is one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. He's been lightly raced since Nov 2017 and is clearly another who's had plenty of niggles in his time.
I can leave Old Pride given he's 11, is another who's had problems looking at his rest patterns, and returns here after another 266 days off, with well-being and stamina to prove. He can beat me, even at his price, and you'd just doff your cap to his trainer. If Spock wins, well, there will be no words.
PACE... well Spock may try and lead for a time actually, if good enough. He has 17f 'speed', relative to this test/his age, but over this trip they may be more restrained. But he could tow them along for a time. I think Sean B will be aggressive on MS for the reasons stated. I'd hope Harry Read sits in second/third on mine, and gets after him in good time- that's if he's in the form to do so. The rest can generally race prominently (but without leading) so it will be interesting to see what positions they adopt.
So, fingers crossed Cornish Warrior can rediscover his winning chase form to date. He's no 14s shot against this lot if he does. Market support suggests Master Sunrise is about to do something, and the consistent Chase The Wind may leave me mildly annoyed. :)
Best of luck, Josh
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