Good Morning Friend
In today's post there is a quick reflection on the weekend, some info on what is coming up this week (plenty of quality free stuff), 5 horses of potential interest (7/1,14/1,11/1,9/1,20/1) and another poll, where you can anonymously say if you fancy any of those or if you think I am mad...
So, let's jump straight to it. I have repeated today's post below. If you want to vote in the poll, or just read it via the blog, you can do so HERE>>>
Now, clearly my tipping still needs some work. Fox Appeal didn't jump a twig which is part him but for me was mainly the jockeys fault (some possible pocket talk from me there!) He had him too far back and just let him 'jump his fences' instead of booting him into them. In order to close on the leaders he had to pick up speed which when there are fences in the way can cause problems. Poor.
He could quickly become a cliff horse but he is so well handicapped now, he was backed here,and he usually peaks around this time of year-so I doubt I will be able to give up on him just yet. Going RH and a smaller field may see him in better light, as well as getting more assistance from the saddle. Nothing came from that far back over fences at Chepstow all weekend. On that ground you had to be near the front.
Thankfully my Trainer Track Profile stats/daily jumps notes had a good old time of it at Chepstow and Hexham...
Today's post...
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+20 points this weekend... well its safe to say I am glad the jumps is starting to hot up and at long last I appear to have researched/produced something that is highlighting winners...my TTP guide/daily Jumps Notes have had a good weekend...
15 bets / 4 wins / +12 points
That's if you backed all of them, without looking at the horses/race etc. That isn't an approach I personally take and so far I have been OK at putting Members off certain horses (well, telling them which ones I am definitely not backing) ...having looked through my Notes on the blog there were 8 horses that I indicated I wouldn't be backing, and they all lost. I will leave a winner at some point (nearly left a 16/1 shot at Exeter who came second in a photo- gulp) but so far so good.
So, with any luck hopefully Members may have won between 10-20 points this weekend. It's been a good start all in, but only that. Very happy with how the micro systems are going especially, which I think are fairly unique. They worked at Chepstow for Hobbs and NTD in any case.
For just £10 per month (cancel anytime) the power is in your hands. You should give my guide/daily jumps notes a go :) Members get the guide for free also...
(and sign up in time for any possible bets at Huntingdon tomorrow)
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What's coming up this week?
I need to do some blog housekeeping. I will be spending Monday/Tuesday updating all results for tips etc and will clarify the Jumps angles/Micro systems and highlight those I plan to keep following etc. I do need to review many of the micro angles also as well as producing more detail for the new jumps handicap portfolio.
BetAlchemist... On tuesday I will tell you about a new free offer which could be a bit of fun..I am sure Nicky will try and sell something at some point but he has set himself a 1k>5k challenge over 12 months. You will get access to free selections as he tries to grow his bank. It will be interesting to see how he gets on!
Narrowingthefield...my good racing buddy Ben Aitken will be launching his jumps service on Wednesday. He has agreed to write a guest post for me/you at some point this week and he sets the bar for free reports/content etc- so there will be plenty of free stuff to get stuck into in the coming days. He thinks about jumps racing a bit differently from most and has taught me plenty in the past.
I am sure there will be some 3m+ chases to attack etc as well albeit I haven't looked ahead to see what racing is on yet.
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The horses...
Well a day of flat action on Monday so obviously no Members post.
There are NO micro systems selections of any sort.
A few of potential interest....
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Five horses of potential interest and maybe I will go in order of my own preference. Stats wise some of them look good albeit the market is weak for some of them at this early stage. We shall see how they all get on...
7.55 Chelsford - Pearl Acclaim...15/2 | 7/1 - This one caught the eye on the speed figures and on closer inspection looks worthy of some interest. He has a geegeez speed fig of 104 here, next best 91, and 87 after that. With a handful of front runners it looks sure to be run at an honest gallop. He can be held up or race prominently and from this draw I hope they do the latter. Two other things caught the eye... he races over 6f here which he hasn't done for an age. He won over 6f at Ripon in 2012 and his last race over the trip was in Sept 2014. He mainly raced in C1/2s over that distance. As he gets a bit older maybe this trip could suit more. He is doing something different in any case, and has ran a few decent races this season. SDS also gets the ride for the first time and he is 1/3,2 places on Dandy's horses. The horse is also 0/3, 2 places at the track. All in all he looks to have a fair bit going for him to my eye and out of all of those I am listing here I suspect I may have my biggest bet on this one. So, that's his chance done for!
5.20 Salisbury- Endless Acres 14/1...interesting for a small EW wager maybe given that Fellowes is 2/7,6 places with his handicap debutants in the last year. He is 3/6,3 places all runners at the track, 6/31,17 places all runners returning after 60+ days off the track. This one takes a step up in distance after a decent enough run LTO and gets the first time visor. Finally the trainer is 'in form' - 2/7,3 places last 14 days. No idea how he will handle good to soft but he could be worth a closer look.
3.10 Yarmouth - Fierce Impact - 11/1- I am on the fence with this one and the market may guide...certainly there are two shorties ahead of him...BUT... Simcock is 2/8,4 places with 1st time out 2 year olds here in last 5 years, 9/20,11 places all runners here in the last year and 5/14,8 places all runners with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. This one has a Derby entry (not the only one in the race). On paper it looks a rather hot race but he may be worth some EW interest. Interesting how this race works out moving forwards into next season.
5.00 Windsor - Ma Peek - 10/1- another where the market may guide- Meehan is 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants at the track, 3/12,6 places all runners last 14 days ('in form') and is 1/5,3 places with handicappers at the track returning after 60+ days. He is 0/9,0 places with this jockey so far which may or may not temper enthusiasm. This one steps back up in trip and gets a tongue tie for the first time. Again, another of some mild interest maybe.
4.15 Curragh- Bridgets Fable - 20/1... this is all about the trainer's stats with stable newcomers making their first start for the yard... 7/20,10 places in the last 2 years, 35% win sr, +16 SP. That is the kind of micro angle that should pay over time. It is also that angle where all previous form on paper from the horse could mean sod all, given the logic being that a new yard may improve the horse. And boy, will they have needed to do that here. There have been some flashes of ability at times. There isn't much more to add to that. I would say the two that won LTO in this from powerful stables are doing things differently from last runs and arguably may have distance questions, and Weld's may have a going question. But, maybe one of them will take this. The market may well guide here- those profit stats at SP, given there are 7 winners, suggests that the market may well guide for these types. We shall see. He could just be useless. The trainer is 1/5 in distance handicaps at the track.
So, this could mark a high end to an awful flat campaign, or a new low if they all fall out the back of the TV. Soon it will all be jumps jumps jumps I suspect.
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Happy Punting, Josh
p.s I will be emailing you a few times this week, so apologies in advance. There may be a couple of services that interest you. Most importantly there will be plenty of quality freebies around and all will be worth checking out.
p.p.s If you are looking for some daily pointers for the Jumps season you should give my Members Club a go, for just £10 per month, cancel anytime. Give it a go over the next four weeks and see if it is for you. My stats/guide/notes are highlighting winners and with any luck will help you really enjoy this jumps season. You can join HERE>>>
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