Good Morning, Friend
I spent the weekend in Dublin with two great days racing at Leopardstown - I would recommend a trip to the DRF next year if you've never been. Thoroughly recommended, for all they could do with a few more food stalls, but that was the only minor gripe on an otherwise superb weekend of action. I'd never been before but it was easy to get to by tram from Dublin city centre, with free shuttle busses the other end. €50 for a weekend pass, €3 for a racecard, €6 for a Guinness, free ATMs etc - unlike some of the big racedays over here, it did feel like value for money, and with better racing. Anyway, worth a trip and I suspect I'll be back again, maybe next year!
I've a 14/1 'fancy' below, but before that...
Golden Mayflower -
The RTP Syndicate troops are off to Kempton this evening to watch our Golden girl in the 7.30pm. She's been tipped by Andy Holding, for all she wasn't the biggest of prices before that. That's a minor aside, we'd just like her to win! Hopefully she can build on her run for us LTO, this now her 2nd start after a proper wind op, and we'd like to think she's got the most class of these/has the most in hand. Rooful could give her something to think about. It could be tactical mind but she has a change of gears, as evidenced by her Lingfield effort, which should help. Hopefully another win for her incoming.
18 owners and friends will be in attendance, and Kempton have been kind enough to sort us a box for a small fee, so we can all be together. It promises to be an entertaining evening.
If you've any fancies on the card, do let me know! :)
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1.35 South - Lonimoss Bareliere - 14/1+ , each-way 1/5,4p
Not much happening on the 'official' tipping front today so I had a flick through Southwell's two chases, and try and say something interesting.
I thought i'd flag this one to stare at/ignore as you please, for all I've talked myself into an interest EW wager, in what admittedly is a poor race. He's a 20 race maiden (placed x5), so far from a solid proposition but this is only his 4th chase and he now runs for the first time ever over a trip beyond 2m2f, and his first chase beyond 2m. I've watched those back and he has looked outpaced in all, unable to go with the leaders, but has stayed on (of course he could just be very moderate, but he's shown something). He's clearly no world beater but he's up to 2m5f today and it 'could' be a reason for unlocking some improvement. 6 starts back, on his penultimate run for Dan Skelton, he came a close 2nd in a 17f handicap hurdle around Newton Abbot, off 97. His conquerer that day would win a couple more, front two clear, and he kept going. He runs off 82 today so if they can ever find the key over fences, he's going to look well treated at this sort of level.
He ran ok at Warwick on soft ground that may not have suited, going well until 3 out. He returns to decent ground here, and is significantly up in trip. Kevin Brogan now takes over for the first time and the horse is only one of three in the race with course experience over fences, a staying on 2nd LTO over 16f, for all well stuffed. He's generally jumped well and never really been put in the race - hopefully this 2m5f tempo allows him to lob along and sit a bit closer. He's fit and in some sort of form at least.
Of further interest... his trainer B Summers doesn't have many winners, 1/23,5p all runners in the last year, 2/38 with all chasers in the last two years.. but he is 1/8,4p with his handicap chasers around Southwell, so when he does win another chase, maybe it will be here.
In any case, enough there at 14-16s for an interest EW dabble to my eyes. I doubt the market is much guide with a yard/connections like this. He's an interesting contender in what looks an open race. Some solid horses near the top of the market but they all have questions also, relative to their odds.
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As always, GL with any bets,
Josh
