Good Morning Friend
Today is arguably my first foray into a 'winter' season 3m+ handicap chase. (albeit run on good to firm!) These are the races I enjoy most of all and are the 'bread and butter' of my punting.
Today I have looked at the 3.10 Ludlow...
How About It - 2 points win 13/2
At this early stage he is looking weaker than I hoped he might and if he goes off at bigger than 6/1 , 13/2 I may be watching through my fingers. Given his profile (form at back end of last year,unexposed,the days off) the market could be a useful guide-it may not of course...
Handicap Chase Tips: The Story So Far in 2016 (+£964 to £10 bets)
Most of my tipping outside of these race types has been abject at best in recent months. One day I will find an approach to the summer months.
But, my stats for 3m+ handicap chase tips are ok so far in 2016...
135 bets / 22 wins / 43 w|p / 16% win SR / 32% w|p SR / +96.45 points
These bets are operating at a 56% Return on Investment. The average odds of the winners has been 8/1.
I would like to get the strike rate up a tad as this can mean a bumpy ride at times. This means getting a better grip on those near the top of the market (not ducking Ready Token at 11/4 the other day would be a good example)
Statistically with a 16% win strike rate, every thousand bets, you are likely to hit a losing run of around 40 at some point, maybe more than once. I think 17/18 has been my longest to date. But, profit is ultimately most important for me personally. Having said that I wouldn't want the win SR to drop below that over time.
Anyway, in the coming 7 months or so I will be trying my best to build on those figures.
I suspect many people stopped reading the blog in recent months. I wouldn't blame them. But hopefully when you see that a Class 4 or higher, 2m7f+ handicap chase on a card, you will have a reason to visit the blog and see if I fancy anything. I always add a write up to help you decide how to attack the race, if at all. All tips are always posted by 10am on the day of racing Mon-Friday, 11am weekends. I try my best to get the tips up late afternoon the day before.
Moving on...
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Have You Missed These Freebies?
1. My free trainer micro systems portfolio for handicap hurdles is HERE>>> (one qualifier today up on blog)
2. Given I am looking at a 3m+ handicap chase today...it is a good time to revisit a recent diary post looking at chases 'Weight Doesn't Matter'...plenty there to take away...read HERE>>>
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Right, my write up for the 3.10 is below. You can read it/comment on it via the blog also...
3.10 Ludlow
How About It - 2 points win -
13/2 8.03 am..(betfred/SkyBet/WilliamH)
Maybe I should feel my way in with a gentle 1 point here but the more I look at this race I really think he could put this lot to the sword and win with something up his sleeve. Given his profile I think market support will be important and I will be looking through my fingers if he is weak.
Why Him?
He is young, unexposed and could be anything. Having watched a few videos I also think when he jumps at his best, he is the best jumper in here from what evidence there is. Around this time last year he won a beginners chase at Exeter over 24f. He did that really well, jumped well under pressure up the straight and after some initial encouragement put them to the sword. It was only a beginners chase but the Nicholls horse would go on to win races at the back end of the season, as would Pipes this year- albeit only at C4 level. He then went to Aintree and didn't do much. I am minded to think he may prefer going RH on what we have seen to date.
It is that Ludlow run on his next start which looks interesting. Why they dropped him back to 2m4f I don't know, but he ran really well. He got outpaced a tad as they were entering the straight but again his jumping took him into it, he responded, and stayed through to the line. The front three were miles clear there. The George horse would go onto to run 3rd next time at The Festival in the novice chase, and Tizzard's horse got himself a win also in an ok chase. Solid form.
We know he goes well fresh and he likes this place. I have no idea what went wrong after that. At Kempton he got into no rhythm early and I reckon the pace may have taken him out of his comfort zone...if you go with the view that he is a stayer in the making, 2m4f around Kempton may not have been ideal. They didn't hang around there. His next two runs were LH and you can forgive any horse a run in Heavy at Ffos Las. He clearly wasn't ready for the Cheltenham race. It must also be remembered that Curtis had illness problems for large chunks of last season and who knows if and when those affected this one.
Anyway, she is in form now- 2/6,3 places last 30 days. She is also 6/22,9 places with handicap chasers returning after 60+ days in c3 contests. If they want him fit enough to win this, based on that record and how he won last season after a break, he will be.
PACE...Azure Fly likes to get on with it and a few, including this one, like to track the pace. He should be in the right spot. He may repeat one of his bad runs and I am prepared for that. But I hope the summer break may have done him good. The stable is in better form. If he builds on that Ludlow run here last season and relishes this trip which I think he will do, he could blow this lot away as I think he would be way ahead of the handicapper. That is why I have gone 2 points. Worth the risk for me I think. 13/2 is fair enough - maybe not quite as big as I would like but then maybe everyone is wise to this profile. Part of me thinks he might go off at 4s or 3s here.
The dangers..
Well if How About It doesn't take this I would hope/expect one of the top two in the market to do so ..Azure Fly or Kilbree Kid
Azure Fly...he is short enough at 3s/2s for me here. He won this race last year off 129 and comes here a few pounds lower now. The trainer is in form and he is a prominent racer. He may try and make all. I am slightly perturbed by his more recent form, his inconsistent nature and the fact that I don't know how strong that last win here was. Horses from that race have run 49 times since and only 2 have won. At his price I was happy for him to beat me.
Kilbree Kid... he is approaching 'saver territory' at around 9/2. Indeed he ticks the same boxes for why he had a solid chance LTO and is a better morning price here. Track is fine, he is inform, fit, still well handicapped on old form, is a solid jumper. The trainer stats underpinning his chance are very strong also and he is a 'qualifier' from my TTP stats pack. There is a minor question over Good to Firm (as it is for the selection in truth) as he is 0/3,0 places on the surface over fences. But, that isn't conclusive. His recent wins are always what could end up being 'summer form'. He was chased home the last day by an unexposed one who was returning after a break and wasn't the most fluent jumping up the home straight. Of most concern to me would be the quick turnaround..all runs 1-30 days he is 2/17,6 places...compared to 5/7,6 places returning 31-60 days. In handicap chases he is 0/11,4 places 1-30 days. Maybe there is nothing there but it appears he is at his best when able to have slightly longer to recover. Also a slight niggle over the distance but that should be fine- all wins over 24f to date. The way he finishes races suggests the extra yardage should be ok. Still, at 9/2 (was put in at 7/2 last night) he has a fair chance and that price is ok.
The rest...
I can't have the rest for me. I have serious reservations over the jumping ability of both Set List and Easy Street, as well as their form. Set List was fortunate to win a few starts ago when the Twister horse ran out when going on to win. She had a heavy fall the last day, seemingly not seeing the fence and trying to walk through it. Maybe that visor is no longer helping. Anyway, I am happy to leave. Likewise I am not sure how strong Easy Street's summer C4 novice handicap chase form is- he was 8/11 when winning the latter one before the wheels fell off. Again I don't like the shape he makes at his fences and the break concerns me- maybe he hurt himself LTO- he keeps brushing his front legs through the fences. Anyway, again enough there for me to leave. Both are unexposed and should like conditions. Clearly no shock if they win but I can't have them.
Heist ties in with KK- he got outpaced there early on (or sulked) and dropped to the back after the first 1/3rd of the race. He can't afford to do that here. Having to make ground down the back straight here, and up the home straight, is tricky with these fences as they come quickly enough. IF he can hold his position he should be close to KK in theory. How the race plays out, and that track position, are what concerns me. He will be staying on late again but those in front may get to the line first. DushyBeag needs every other horse in here to severely underperform really. He has much improvement to make and I can't see him being good enough on recent form
Good Luck if/what you play on.
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All the best Josh
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