Good Morning, Friend
To Plumpton...
A decent run from Cold Stare in the Bronze Cup, just finding his stablemate too strong, front too miles clear, and had Danny got after him a bit sooner, we may have had a winner, but that's the game and he has to be ridden patiently, both to settle and he appears to enjoy a target to aim at. He came out and won yesterday back at Ayr, 1 day later, to show just how well handicapped he was. O'Meara had got a few of his to peak for this week.
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Telegram...
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Onto Plumpton... I'm off there shortly to watch our Sir Canford... there's some thoughts on him, a video if you've nothing better to do, and some musings on other races...
First up, some general stats I've picked up looking through the card, which could be worth noting! And at least if every horse I now mention today gets stuffed, I've said something useful!
Nigel Hawke - has done well at Plumpton, I don't fancy any of his today (more fool me maybe) but all runners in prev 5 years: 7/33,15p, +8 SP
Ben Pauling - building up a good record with horses from other yards, on first start for him: 5/15,7p +18 SP in the last year, worth noting.
Stand Sheppard rides this place well: 5/16,6p +10 SP to date.
Chris Grodon & Rex Dingle - A trainer/jockey combo to note? 7/15,9p +46 SP together in the last year. They've got the odd fancied one today, none of which I'm on!
Fergal O'Brien; All Plumpton runners last 5 years: 6/19,10p +23 SP
Harry Fry: All runners here last 5 years: 10/26,14p, +6
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'Through The Card'
2.00 - Sundowner - 25/1
2.35 - Imperial Alex - 13/8 (next best)
3.10 - Sir Canford - 20/1-25/1 - EW 4p (now 28s/33s)
3.45 - Magistrato - 20/1
4.20 - Line of Descent - 4/1 (NAP)
Sundowner - the three at the top of the market may dominate this, plenty of money for the Brookehouse horse who's no doubt been schooling well. Sheena West has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this, inc with 14/1 and 20/1 shots, all under Marc Goldstein, and quite frankly that stat was enough for me to have some interest change on this filly at the prices. She's probably useless but last time may have been needed after 77 days off, with this race in mind no doubt, and having started out life over 7-8f, stepping up to 17f over hurdles may be transformative - it may not of course! Given the trainer record in the race I've just got to have something on at the odds, haven't I?! Backing all her runners in this race forever more may pay dividends. It is a juvenile hurdle of course, lot's of uneducated guessing!
Imperial Alex - hard to say overpriced of course and one for placepots/muggy multiples maybe, but then they're generally muggy for a reason! This one makes chase debut but has quite a bit of point experience, often running well over 3m but shaping as if a non-stayer. He's in the right hands here and ran well over hurdles when last seen, looking progressive. Interesting they haven't wasted much time to go chasing. I thought he was the one horse in this race who could just be much better than these, I'm not sure anything would have lived with him over hurdles and in theory he could improve bundles for chasing. We will soon find out! Some others are race fit and in-form, but will they have the class/as much in hand? He's obviously no world beater, but could have a fair bit in hand here.
Magistrato - a punt here that may amount to little but this ex Paul Nicholls charge was in fine form over fences when last seen, his last run possibly coming too soon, and given a short break. His chase form, for Nicholls and then his new handler, looks strong enough for the grade/time of year, and it's interesting they go back over hurdles. Pace lured me in also as I think they'll try and make all, and it's not impossible he could get away from them. He does carry his head high and is enthusiastic, and may well just fall in a hole, but he's got an engine. I thought at 20s he could be worth a small poke for interest.
One of the top 3 in the market may take this but I wasn't confident enough to wade into any of them at 7-2-4s, for all if they go a good pace and he can keep in touch, I'd expect Get Back Get Back to be running at them hard, but I thought it had an open feel. Chris Gordon could improve Our Champ bundles from the now ex-trainer Paul Henderson, and it will be interesting if many of his ex inmates take big steps forward having moved yards. This could be one, but I don't know if he's ready etc. That sort of race! If I wasn't going racing, i'd probably leave alone!
Line of Descent - Napping a Warren Greatrex horse will probably land me in trouble as I rarely get his right, if ever! He's not quite in the Tim Vaughan and Micky Hammond camp for me, but not far off! In saying that, in the last year he's been operating at a 17% wsr with his chasers, which is very good, and maybe he's now got to grips with his new yard in Lambourn. Anyway, i thought he was overpriced here and if he got back to the level of his Cartmel and Southwell form from earlier in the summer, he'd go very well here. His form appeared to take off, in races which have worked out well, and I do think more to come from him as a Good ground chaser, a decent jumper at his best. That wasn't the case last time out under Jonjo, and the race before that came just 8 days after his win.
He's had a 55 day break and has a good record fresh, it may have done him the world of good. James Bowen his back after his injury and knows the horse. The one niggle is that this 17f could be sharp enough, but it's a small field and I do hope James is aggressive as he can be. If he's ahead of these heading to 2 out, I think that could be game over. I respect the top 2 above him, inc Chris Gordon's horse who's won this race previously after a break but not impossible that now aged 9, he's star may be fading slightly. Maybe not, and he bolts up, but I can leave him at 13/8, I'm not sure what to expect from him, and as yet don't know what form the Gordon yard are in, esp on those returning from a break. Today may tell us plenty on that front! Line of Descent will do for me, but he will be winning more chases. The poor sod looks like being my main play of the day! Hmm.
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Sir Canford -
Below you can read my preview sent to Sir Cs owners yesterday. I thought this race fairly open and IF Sir C got back to the form of Uttoxeter, he'd be in the mix here, and with 4 places, I've had a little go EW. If he runs like Cartmel then he'll be stuffed of course! He's very weak in the market this morning, but has been working well at home, so we will see. Obviously it's hard to have much confidence after his last run but we 'think' it was the tacky ground, this will tell us more and where he's at from this mark.
The track is an unknown. Any one of 6-8 horses winning this wouldn't surprise me, it's a competitive yet open contest on paper. If there's loads of pace on it could set up for a closer, such as Cherry Cola. A fascinating contest, hopefully Sir C bounces back to some form on this better ground, and we'll see where that puts him, his jumping needing to be better than last time also. It could be a more galloping track is required. I wasn't sure anything was chucked in here but I'll find out soon enough.
3.10 Plumpton - Sir Canford - Race Preview
Sir Canford - he's been working well at home and with any luck can bounce back to form, on what I hope will be nice 'Good' ground come race time, with no further rain forecast today or tomorrow, plenty of sunshine and a breeze. There shouldn't be an excuse on that front.
If he runs a duffer again in these conditions then maybe something else is up with him, but he's been working just fine at home. I think the track should be ok - he handled Fakenham well enough and that's on the turn more than this course, and I think he'll enjoy running up the hill for home from the bottom bend.
The main question is how he handles the steep downhill on the farside, especially on the final circuit, and whether he can jump well and hold a position. I've no doubt that, if back to his best, he'll be staying on well to the line. He's run well at Sedgefield before and that's up and down, including downhill to the final flight, before a climb, so fingers crossed no excuse there.
To my eyes he won at Uttoxeter as if there could be more to come from this mark over this trip, doing all his best work in the final 100 yards and hitting the line hard enough - I've seen Sam more vigorous on horses and I think he had a bit up his sleeve. It remains to be seen what that form is worth of course, the 2nd hasn't been out to test it as yet for all he was unexposed, and the 3rd just consents to run well as and when he pleases. This is only Sir C's 5th handicap hurdle run of his life and there should be more to come at some stage.
This is more competitive than his win for us, this a 0-105 'standard' handicap with plenty of previous winners, his win in a 0-100 'novice' handicap. Plenty arrive in some sort of form and look dangerous.
However, if back to form on this ground and in touch at the bottom of the hill, I think he's going to be thereabouts, in what on paper does look a competitive race, but a winnable one, with some interesting rivals but no world beaters from what we can see at this stage. There are some interesting rivals but they all have the odd question in conditions/ track/ trip/mark also.
I touch on those, and the pace, in a video preview which you can watch at the link below... (pace and oppo from 5 mins onwards)
You can watch HERE >>>
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Good luck with any bets, I'd best get ready for the races,
Josh
p.s don't forget to find me on Telegram and send me a wave! (no abuse! :)) @RTPJosh
