Hello, Friend
I hope you had an enjoyable bank-holiday weekend. I was rather happy with Friday's Pontefract efforts, a solid 3/6 on the 'through the card', (9s, 3s, 7/2) job done! A few of you did rather well from the musings, including backing the Midgley outsider at 25s+ who won under Graham Lee - turns out that's why he wasn't on the other one, which I fancied! Doh. There's sometimes some gold in the notes but I'll take my x3 winners and run. All good fun. That's now 8/13 for the last two 'through the cards' from Beverley and Ponte. A blank is now due, but hopefully not just yet!
I'm off to Lingfield in a few hours, our Golden Mayflower running in the 6.10. We've got x14 in attendance and it promises to be an exciting evening. We usually have a good time. You can find the preview email sent to her owners down below. I've had a flick through the rest of the card but at this stage I can't say anything was jumping out at me to be backed. If you have any strong fancies, do let me know!
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Before that....
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Golden Mayflower Preview
Golden Mayflower is fit, working well and ready to run. We know she's well handicapped from this mark of 77, on her homework, how she glided past the field on debut for us in January from 3lb lower and indeed her solid second at Kempton to Lightship, who subsequently finished 2nd in a Listed race with an OR100. Her last wind-op has worked and she continues to finish off her races strongly (well, bar two starts back at Kempton but she never looked totally happy that day for some reason).
We're now in the process of trying to identify her ideal conditions so that we can get the best out of her and get her winning again. Having always shown plenty of boot at home, the drop to 7f last time didn't work out. She was taken off her feet through the first part and her comfort cruising speed wasn't fast enough to keep up with them, certainly around Lingfield's speedier 7f. She did however make progress in the final furlong and was doing all her best work at the line, beaten 4l. Amy gave her a 10 day holiday after that, turned out into a field with her friends, and hopefully that will have a positive impact also.
We now try 10f for the first time and back on grass for the first time with us. Her overall profile may suggest she's best on the all-weather, but she's had excuses for previous efforts on turf, including her breathing. In theory she should be just fine on grass and that shouldn't be an excuse from what we know. The hope with this distance move is that her comfort cruising speed allows her to lob along and stay in contention, moving deep into the race with ease, before kicking in with her 1-1.5f burst of speed which she's shown us in the past. Some of her efforts suggest it's well worth a go, and given her breeding, we have to try also.
Her dam, Pelerin, was versatile, winning from 7f-8f, but also went very close over 10f at Newbury in a listed contest, staying on strongly at the line. Golden Mayflower may well be just like her mother, 8f-10f may both be just fine (in some circs, a big field/straight course 7f may not be out of reach either), it just depends on the race set-up, the pace profile of the race, and how it plays out. Her grand-dam, Fragrancy, was a 8f-10f winner herself, and has produced a few 10-12f winners.
Mayflower's Sire, Golden Horn, was champion 3YO and horse of the year, winning The Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc, 8f through to 12f, and a strong stayer over 12f.
So, here's hoping she enjoys this new distance and sees it out well, which would obviously open up options. At least we will learn something today, for all we'd all like to stop learning and start winning at some point soon.
Pace wise... on paper I'm not sure there are any tearaways in here and I'm not convinced it will be that strongly run, which could be in our favour if it turns into a relative dash for the distance. Although at times when i've thought that, 2-3 end up bombing on! Cavaluccio and Balgair can be headstrong at times and are usually held onto a bit. Richard P Smith can be keen also but can race a bit more forward, and in a first visor, maybe Saffie will light him up. Glory Nights can be up there but has lots of speed in his breeding, first try at the trip and I can't think they'll be ultra aggressive. Eklil is usually patiently ridden also, as is Azamhan. All the jockeys will know this, so I don't know how it will play out, someone will go on. Stefano will look to be patient, settle her and be keen to make sure she's doing all her best work late again. It's not impossible that after 2-3f or so she can just amble further forward without using much energy at all, we shall see. He won't want to be too far back if this does turn into a 'dash' in the final 2-3f but it may well be the ideal set up for her, if she stays of course. Even if beaten, hopefully she hits the line hard and the stamina question is answered, at least in this sort of race-set up (a potentially moderately run 10f)
Of the opposition - well not too many results would shock me here and if you ran the race a handful of times, you may get a few different winners, depending on how hard they go.
Cavaluccio - he's the right fav here looking rather well handicapped off 67, having burst clear last time, only to maybe hit the front too soon and be picked off by another one - however, his conqueror that day arrived in form, having bolted up the time before, and the front two were well clear. If he settles, we could all be chasing him home as giving him 10lb could be tough, he's consistent, stays, looks sure to run his race. But, evidently he is beatable also. At our very best I think we have more class, on what they've done so far.
Balgair is more exposed but well handicapped now, although due to being on a losing run since Oct21. The booking of James Doyle catches the eye and he has more than enough ability to win this from this mark, but is the sort who needs it all to drop right also and is open to attack from younger legs. No shock winner though.
Richard P Smith is versatile ground wise (soft the last three runs) and does stay the trip fine. A 1st Visor goes on, so obviously they think he needs some help, hopefully it lights him up too much. He could go forward this time. If getting back to his autumn form, he could be dangerous, and maybe he will appreciate a return to faster ground, for all that's a slight question also. It's not impossible this sort of mark sums him up.
Eklil has the ability to feature from this sort of mark, stamina no problem, but first run in 214 days, no idea if a1 here or not. That was his first proper holiday since coming into training and he may have benefitted plenty from it and is still open to improvement, like most here, including us. Hopefully he's just here for a day out but if fit, is no forlorn hope either.
Glory Nights has the 'could be anythings' about him, 2nd start for yard, moving up from 7f also. A big run wouldn't be a shock and they appear to be on a stamina finding mission also. He's not bred for 10f, most of his half-siblings 6-8f horses, his sire a sprinter. So, we shall see, connections obviously think worth a go and if he does stay, could be thereabouts for sure and the sort who could bolt up if it's what he wants. Inexperienced though and yet to win, this just his 5th run of his life, a ÂŁ38k purchase out of Sir Michael Stoute's.
Azamhan is a bit of an unknown also, winning over this sort of trip in France, not doing much on yard debut 11 days ago, last beaten 34l. He was keen there, and maybe he needs more time to acclimatise. It's hard to know at this stage if this mark of 64 is generous or not.
So, a fascinating contest. Hopefully GM runs her race and we'll see what happens when Stefano starts asking questions as they enter the final 2-3f. She has the ability/class to win this, and from this mark, so here's hoping she relishes the trip and has us excited in the latter stages, maybe chasing the Fav home or looming up to challenge. Provided Stefano feels like she's run her race, we will learn something about the distance/her stamina.
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All the best,
Josh
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