Hello, Friend
I hope your week has started well. Below I've some musings on trainer Tom Lacey for you to flick through. Today's Southwell card doesn't set the world alight but I flagged some pointers for Tom on today's blog, and then had a deeper dive into his handicap hurdlers, which was eye-opening. I hadn't quite clicked just how consistent he is in that sphere, and if you don't take note of said runners, it maybe time that you did.
29 RTP Syndicate owners and friends made their way to Kempton on Saturday, where we had our own box which was good fun and had a runner in The Lanzarote to get excited about. Kaleb ran ok and came back a1 which is always the best bit. Sadly he found it all a bit too much on this occasion, the early pace taking him out of his comfort zone and flat out for most of the final circuit, but he finished off his race. Maybe slower ground would have helped slow it all down. He's taken us to this big race and a great day out at Cheltenham, but it was time we lowered his sights and got him winning again, which will be the next aim.
Blazing Soldier is working well at Mark Walford's and has come out of his Newcastle win in good form, the aim to head back to that course on 30th Jan, where we'll see if he can carry a penalty to victory, which is often tough to do. Our latest addition, Dixie Cowboy, is settling into Sam Englands, with nearly all shares sold. On Saturday a few of us are off to the glitz of the all-weather at Wolves, to cheer on our Coolree, who makes his second start for us, should strip a bit fitter and we hope will appreciate the drop down in distance. If he can jump out and hold a position though the early part of the race, hopefully he's thereabouts come the end! It's all go.
Onto today...first up, my notes from today's blog post...
One trainer to note at the moment is Tom Lacey, who’s 6/20,9p in the last 30 days, and 3/6,4p in the last 14, +19. Interestingly, Stan Sheppard, his yard #1, was booked for both of today's runners, even with runners at Newbury (since abandoned).
His handicap hurdlers are generally the place to focus at Southwell, 7/21,11p, +18 (8/32,13p all hurdlers here), 5/15,8p +12 when at Class 5 level.
He has Call Me Arthur (1.35) and Tune In A Box (3.55) and to my eyes both should be going close IF repeating or building on their LTO efforts, however, it is C5 level of course and some of these horses are not the most consistent. Plenty of handicap debutants/2nd start in handicaps in Arthur’s race also, but that last run sets a solid standard for the grade. Not the sorts I’d wade into at 9/4 for all I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both make that price look decent, for all a 9.5/1 double if you have any free bets laying around/beer money, for some afternoon interest, in the hope it isn’t sunk come 1.45pm! In any case, those Lacey stats are worth noting.
Tom Lacey is hot, and Kim Bailey is not… a yard to keep an eye on, 0/25,2p last 30 days, 0/16,1p last 14 days, having had a decent start to the season. I don’t know if they’ve all been flu jabbed and are running flat, there’s illness, or due to the weather he hasn’t been able to work them as intended/they’re a gallop or two short, but something is up. It will turn at some stage of course.
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After posting the above I had a deeper dive into Tom Lacey's stats, with a focus on his handicap hurdlers. For those who like a micro angle or 'starting point'...
307 bets / 98 wins / 179 plc (inc wins) / 32% wsr / 58% psr /+180 SP / +240 BFSP / BFAE 1.48
It's fair to say they're pretty solid stats, and what stands out his his consistency, only dropping below a 30% SR once since the start 2016, which was 2021, where it was still 27%, and a +30 point profit. Many of those winners will have been well backed also, so taking early odds/morning odds, would have resulted in an even bigger profit no doubt. There will have been plenty of 8/1-14/1 shots backed into range also. The market has generally been a good guide, there is the odd bigger priced winner but they're hard to find. The odds compilers and the market still haven't cottoned on as yet, last year performing 42% above market expectation, the year before that, 55%.
It's a simple angle, but certainly one worth noting, and keeping an eye on moving forwards. Hopefully it may help you land on a few more jumps winners.
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Thanks for reading,
All the best,
Josh
