Good Afternoon, Friend

I'm probably emailing out too late but a few 'Sunday Musings' below, where I've just repeated today's blog post to use, abuse and ignore as you please!

Today’s Stats Starting Points

Remember, this is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form/profile has gone into the below, all angles with at least a 30% SR. They’re here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis if you so wish. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time Let’s crack on…

Kempton –

1.40 – Cracking Start – those Harry D ‘trainer change’ stats again, for all odds compilers don’t appear to take many chances with his string at times, 14/31,19p +24 with those running for yard first time, having moved from elsewhere.

4.35 – Face De Music – Katy Price does well with LTO winners, 4/13,6p +8 in last 2 years. Yard in solid form, 2/5,4p last 14d, +6.

Leopardstown –

2.25 – Bright Stripes – A Oliver/Billy Lee have been teaming up to good effect in last 14d, 3/5,4p +5. The trainer’s in decent form, 4/14,6p last 14d. (also runs Gibbs Island, 4.10)

Limerick –

1.30 – The Sugarhill Lady – E McNamara/C Hogan, 2/5 +12 in last 30d. Market may guide, could well be one for handicaps, or not.

2.40 – Spring Meadow (3.50 Embittered) – E McNamara/Sean Flanagan in decent form, 3/7,5p +6 in last 30d. Dream Meadow – the trainer in form with C Hogan also

3.50 – Horantzau d’Airy – Mullins/Townend, 4/9,5p +5 in last 14d.

4.25 – Cahirdown Boy – trainer/jockey 2/5 +12 in last 30d, E McNamara in form.

Sedgefield –

3.10 – Will Knot (3.45 Breakdance Kid)- father-son trainer/jockey combo are in form, team Coltherd 3/8 +29 in last 14d. Around here in the last year, 3/14,6p +18.

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October Trainers

4.35 Kemp – Poppa Poutine – (12/1<)

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Today’s Tips & Notes

Notes… a couple of interest from the stats starting points above, to my eyes anyway!

2.40 List – Spring Meadow EW- an in-form TJC team here and yard in general, who’ve actually got the 2nd fav also in this so maybe I’ve picked the wrong one, but with 5p to play with I can’t work out why this one is 8/s9/s, for all maybe hard to train. But ran well after a fair chunk of time off two starts back, in a race working out well, and was going ok LTO when fell, but on ground maybe too soft. Sean F now jumps on, and he really should have a weak race like this in his locker.

3.45 Sedge – Breakdance Kid – Flicking through the ‘stats starting points’ above, I can’t work out why this lad is such a big price/seemingly weak in market, maybe I’ll soon find out! He’s 2/6 chasing with more to come, hacking up three starts back at Hex over 3m before a quick return over hurdles. LTO was his first start in 80 or so days, and ran well having been outpaced, in a much better race than this. He could improve further for 26f, first time here which poses a Q, maybe wants a more galloping expanse, but at 8s-10s, I’ll have an interest nibble.

I couldn’t tempt myself into anything in The Durham National, not a race I do particularly well in. I didn’t really want to oppose the Mullins fav in the big race below either (Horantzau D'Airy), but his price long gone, maybe 4s or so was acceptable – I did think a case of ‘jump and win’ , provided he runs his race. We shall see, I’ll just sit those out and watch.

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Munster National Trends/Pointers

16/16 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP

16/16 had never run in race before

15/16 aged 8<

15/16 Top 2 at least once last three starts

14/16 had 0-2 handicap wins

Ignoring odds and applying the 16/16, 15/16 stats, only helps so much, IF upholding of course, reducing the field from 16 to 9.

Horantzau D’Airy, Perceval Legallois, Yeah Man, The Company Sergeant, Panda Boy, Stuzzikini, Jumping Jet, Grandero Bellow, Another Choice

As I type, the first five of those are in the 20/1< price spot, which has been a guide, for all one of the others may be backed in of course, but are 22s/25s+ as of 9.10am.

Trainers… to have won the race previously/represented… all of Elliott’s, Mullins x2 and Panda Boy for Martin Brassil.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend and GL with any bets,

All the best,

Josh