Good Morning, Friend,

The Summer Plate...fancies down below...

My Newmarket 'TTC' went ok last night, Isle of Lismore winning in the style of a horse who should have been napped. Maybe it was no coincidence that my best three efforts were in handicaps and horses at solid enough prices. Strike was delivered to perfection by Rab Havlin but to his credit the winner pulled out a bit more. That would have made for a very good evening. When watching some of his races back I did wonder if he thought about things too much when eye-balling a rival, maybe a bit soft. His only win was by a nose. 7f off a solid gallop looks his trip and surely he's worth trying in some headgear to help him in the latter stages. That's what i'd be doing anyway, CP then a visor if they don't work. He's got a 7f win in him, that could be solid enough form, a well handicapped in-form winner, front too miles clear. Jumbeau ran her race in 3rd but maybe her mark does sum her up now, proving hard to win with. No excuses. Place returns from those two. Less said about the other three mentions the better! Hyperfocus ran ok up at Hamilton, may have preferred softer ground and finished 5th, which wasn't much good for my small EW bet 4 places, for all a couple of bookies paid 5.

Onto today... from the flat to the jumps... there could be plenty of rain all over the place today and it's hard to know what the ground will be come race time at most tracks. I've left the flat alone and just looked at Market Rasen, where they've had 3mm already with rain apparently set in. Given they've been watering plenty up to this meeting its not impossible it gets fairly soft, we shall see. Proper soft would ruin the race somewhat and make it a bit more of a lottery.

The Plate brings back very happy memories, our own Really Super (who's now in foal to Nathaniel, due January) bolting up 3 years back at 25/1. Sadly none of us owners could get there due to Covid restrictions but I did head to the pub with one of them and roared her home, as did most there who'd had small EW bets on my say so. Quite the thrill.

That's enough looking back...

3.15 Market Rasen

Gloire D'Athon - 10/1-11/1 - I just don't get why he's 10s/11s here, he's been fairly weak every since the market was formed making me think I've missed something. But from what I can see on paper, I just have to have him onside at the odds. He still looks ultra progressive and getting better with each chase start. He races prominently, jumps like a stag, I don't think will mind rain, and looks like he'll just keep galloping. This race is over 2m6f now with rail movements and he's yet to go beyond 2m4f, but the way he runs suggests he could well relish it. His form has a really solid look to it and he goes well fairly fresh, this surely having been the plan since his last start. Aidan Coleman is injured but Tom Cannon an able deputy. Sarah Humphrey's does well with her chasers... 12/31,17p, +44 SP in the last two years, which is rather impressive. She can keep her horses in-form and progressing also, 10/21,11p, +25 SP with LTO winners in the last 2 years also. IF he runs his race and assuming he stays, he just has to be bang there.

Killer Clown - 17/2-9/1 - the one above I fancy a bit more strongly than this lad but at the prices I wanted him onside here as he'd be the one winner that would leave me unable to enjoy the finish of the race were he unbacked at these odds. I'm less sure on the final 2f with this lad, especially in soft, but he ran a stormer last time behind the one above in 3rd, on his first start after a wind-op, which appears to have worked. At his best he's a very good chaser with some solid form to his name, and he won't mind soft - just what it does to his stamina late on. In saying that he's a 3m point winner and has shaped a few times as if he'd just keep going. It could be he enjoys a slightly more patient ride these days. He got stuck in a pocket approaching 3 out last time also and may have been closer for that, and really took off after the last. He's now below his last winning mark, and 10lb lower than when a solid 3rd over the CD last October. If he runs to his best he'll be bang there turning in, and then we'll see if he powers home or not.

I suppose with 5 places, EW may be the 'safe' call with those two.

I haven't got Franky Du Berlais right the last two years and evidently he's a big danger to all, and this will have been the plan. Ground on the softer side would pose a slight question for him but he'll just have to beat me at 4s, 9/2, which he may well do. I suppose those were the three I homed in on and if neither takes this, I wasn't that close this time around! There are plenty of in-form recent winners in the line up and it should be a cracker. But those three look the 'class' horses and the rest do need to take a step forward, assuming they run to their best.

Pace wise... my two should track the pace I think, certainly Gloire won't be too far off them, Killer may be ridden with a bit more restraint.

Good luck if following me in and with any other bets,

Have an enjoyable Saturday, maybe in the warm and dry!

All the best

Josh