Good Evening, Friend
I hope you're having a great week. The weather is playing havoc with the jumping game at the moment, but hopefully Newbury and Warwick survive.
Further down below you can find my big race trends, trainers and shortlist for the big handicap hurdle from Newbury, The William Hill Handicap Hurdle, for all a sub-standard renewal against historical standards.
Before that, another couple of superb reports from friend of the blog, Cliff, our resident Irish Racing Expert for all that's just one string to his bow. His content is very very good, especially for those of you who like to read and cogitate, rather than just (or 'only') consuming tips etc.
First up, Cliff has reviewed his tips and musings from the last week, which did including a 10/1>14/1 (SP) winner at the DRF, for all a small loss on his tips at advised prices, but a decent review. Cliff is always thinking ahead, especially to Cheltenham, but also beyond.
YOU CAN READ HIS REVIEW HERE >>>
Secondly, you can find some notes on a 'look ahead' to this weekend's racing, as well as his thoughts for Thurles which was on Thursday. While that day has gone (there were no tips), there are some interesting musings on the odd race, especially those where certain trainers historically introduce nice horses who may be worth following.
There are some musings on Newbury, and also Naas and Navan. I found it a fascinating read, especially his look at the 4YO Rated Hurdle from Naas tomorrow, especially with eyes on The Fred Winter Handicap at Cheltenham, where he has an early 20/1 fancy.
YOU CAN READ HIS WEEKEND NOTES, with a title to Cheltenham, HERE >>>
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WILLIAM HILL HURDLE BIG RACE TRENDS, TRAINERS & SHORTLISTS
16/313 runners, 61 places
16/16 aged 5, 6 or 7
14/16 Aged 5-6, 7YO (2/73,12p, inc 2 of last 4), 8+ (0/50,8p)
16/16 carried 10-6 to 11-8 (exc jockey claims) (did not: 0/85,10p)
16/16 NOT Top or Bottom weights (inc joints) (were: 0/56, 3p)
15/16 had 0-1 wins over the distance (2+ : 1/47, 7p)
14/16 had 6 or fewer career runs over hurdles (7+: 2/160, 19p)
14/16 Top 3 on last start (4th or lower: 2/144, 17p)
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
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Applying the trends…
Aged 5-7, carrying 10-6-11-8 (and as such not also Top or Bottom weights), would have found 16/16 and IF upholding would have us looking at a longer list of eight, cutting the field in half…
Let It Rain, Un Sens A La Vie, All In You, Lanesborough, Hot Fuss, The Hardest Geezer, Wellington Arch and Wreckless Eric
Of those with 0-1 wins over the distance (15/16, inc last nine winners) would just remove Wreckless Eric, leaving 7 if upholding.
14/16 had 6< hurdle runs and applied to the seven above, would further point to just three…
Let It Rain, Un Sens A La vie, All in You
A top three finish LTO has been a big plus, and if applied to the longer list of seven, would point to four…
Let It Rain, Un Sens A La vie, All in You, Hot Fuss
Let It Rain and The Hardest Geezer fall in that 10-11>11st weight carrying bracket (0/66,9p), but as above, that could be a random stat with little logic, placed horses solid, but still a stat of sorts for those two to overcome.
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Good luck with any bets,
All the best
Josh
