Hello Friend
I hope you had a great weekend. There were a few winners dotted around from my Guineas notes (a few losers also of course) but with any luck some of you may have landed on the right ones.
As always I'm grateful for your time and hopefully you find something of interest when reading today's musings which follow... there's news on 'free to air' members' content, today's tips and a realisation from myself that my tipping focus needs to specialise, so you can read where i'll be focussing on forever more, and why... all below...
Members' Content Now Free To Air
For the next week or so my Members' posts are 'free to air' - no login/registration required, you can just head to the blog and read the posts / comments (always gold down there from readers) and do with the content as you please.
Do bookmark the 'blog' page for tomorrow onwards :) ( here>>>)
In today's post...
There's a 13/2 tip from Kempton (+ in depth write up/reasoning) and a couple of qualifiers from my summer jumps stats (still a work in progress that I'm hoping to finish today).
I use these trainer stats qualifiers as a 'way in' and I add a 'star rating' next to the ones I like, and there is one today at 9/1 - i've added some notes as to why.
Down in the comments, Mike has flagged some qualifiers against a report I produced for 1st time out 2YO trainers in April/May - i've posted the link to that also, as well as a brief chat on Richard Fahey and David O'Meara.
So, as always, something for everyone and plenty of content to engage with and use in any way you please, especially if you like finding your own winners, using quality information/research to help.
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The week ahead... I need to finish my Flat and Summer Jumps stats packs, the qualifiers of which I post daily, the evening before, to use as you please.
There's also Chester's May meeting and i'll be pulling together some pointers for that, as I do for most of The Flat 'Festivals' - plenty of 2/3/4 day meetings which I can research in HorseRaceBase, to see which trainers have done well historically etc.
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The importance of specialisation?
I'll be doing a review of the winter season just gone at some point. Overall it was rather mediocre, especially on the tipping front. Profitable, just about, since 1st Nov but nothing to shout home about, and recent weeks have been tough - Aintree and Punchestown rather chewed me up and spat me out, urgh.
I've been doing plenty of reflection on my own performance/tipping future, as I always do, but this time helped by actually keeping proper results/records for the season, rather than just a basic profit/loss.
I have tried, and blatantly failed, to turn my attention to tipping in any 'big race' I fancied having a go at - mainly C2+ handicaps, chases, hurdles, and some graded races.
Evidence of this winter would suggest I'm not good enough at that - partly a skills gap, but also an element of time/mental capacity - what with running the blog how I like to (the amount of research that you can use to find your own winners, engaging with readers in the comments etc) and then the business side of things.
I suppose there's only so many hours in the day and keeping on top of various pools of horses has been challenging - too challenging for me. And consistently diving into some of the most competitive races run all season. I just wasn't good enough for that.
Thankfully there is some positive news - I've sort of known deep down that I most enjoy marathon jumps races, those over 2m7f+, mainly handicap chases. This winter season's results clearly indicate where I should focus...
My record since Chepstow's October meeting (the official start of the winter season?) in all jumps races over 2m7f +
160 bets / 20 wins / 50 places (inc wins, inc 16 seconds) / +79.6 points (9am/advised/non bog) / +£796 to £10 bets.
As a breakdown, for those interested :- - Non Festival (Chelt, Aintree, Punch) 2m7f+ chases: 16/118, 37p, +66.85
- Festival (Chelt, Aintree, Punch) 2m7f+ chases: 0/16,4p, -11.8
- Non Festival 2m7f+ hurdle races: 3/17, 7p, +7.45
- Festival 2m7f+ hurdle races: 1/9,2p, +17.1
So, after some reflection, my official 'tipping' will just be focusing on 2m7f+ jumps races forever more I think, mainly handicap chases - with some work to do on the Festival front, but there's none of those until next March.
At long last I'm going to specialise, and can hopefully build on those results above, which do look solid enough. (unlike my winter season as a whole) And if a few more of those 16 second places had got their head in front, even better.
This will include a focus on the 'summer jumps' also. During the summer it should free up a bit of time to improve much of the other content also.
They'll still be plenty of Flat content - especially stats, big race trends, previews, my 'star ratings' (stats picks - a way in- that I really like/have backed with my own money) etc, but my 'tipping' will just focus on 2m7f+ races, and mainly handicap chases at that.
If you do like picking your own winners, and have never considered 'specialising', it may be something to think about - it could be a certain code/distance, class, a group of courses, or trainers, you name it. But a certain focus can maybe go a long way, especially if you've plenty of other things going on also. Just a thought. I get my buzz from 'solving the puzzle' (or trying to!) and hopefully with this renewed focus I can do more of that moving forwards.
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I think that's all for today, thanks for reading as always,
All the best,
Josh
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