Good Morning, Friend
Below you you can find a 're-cap' on yesterday, a couple of pokes to muse over today and a special offer. Also, don't forget Sam Darby's Free Tips Friday post will go up at 8pm on the blog this evening, so head there if you wish to read it. He's looking for the four timer!
Back to back winning days is always a positive. Ben Pauling enhanced his impressive Worcester stats yesterday, and when Kielan Woods is doing the steering. Wick Green bounced back in 1st CP, and maybe returned to a more galloping track. A chance Wincanton was a shade too speedy for him, maybe. On that evidence he could pick up another chase with ease, but won't be 5s>7s next time I doubt.
A case of what might have been with The Grey Falco who I thought looked like the winner when making a howler two out, the jockey may regret not making his mind up. That would have been some double but I was due some bad luck. Still, put him in your trackers, he may not be 9s next time but appears back in form and must have a 2m handicap hurdle in him - he does need a strong pace and possible a long-ish straight.
The flat maidens ran ok, Anglesey Lad missed the break a bit but ran a race of promise, possibly outpaced in the final furlong and maybe needing it. One to watch on next couple of starts, especially if stepped up in trip, he looked to have some ability. A 2-3 at Cork, sadly they both bumped into one, just, exciting stuff, especially the 3rd who was backed from 8s >4s and for a moment looked like he may sweep past.
We move on. There's a couple more to muse over below, followed by a special offer for this Flat Season...
7.40 Fontwell - Pleasure Garden - 9/2-5/1 - my 'way in' to this race was actually The Cathal Don, trainer/jockey 4/10,5p at Fontwell together - but on close inspection, he's just too in and out for me, but if returning to his form of two starts ago may be mixing it. When looking through the oppo, to help enhance his case, I ended up quite liking this one, and 9/2 looks fair. He was a 2m winner on the flat for Sir Mark P, and just shows you how some of these flat breds can be versatile. He looks a stamp of a horse on video. LTO was his chasing debut and he appeared to relish it, jumping really well to my eyes under Tom Cannon, who keeps the ride. Stat He rides this place very well also, especially over fences - 9/39,14p, +13 in the last 5 years, 4/13 in the last two.
I thought the form of LTO looked strong. He may have been lucky, the leader lost his irons then UR at the last but he was coming upsides the fav there, and that horse arrived having hacked up the run before. The eventual 2nd arrived in good form also. Solid form for the grade. Hopefully Pleasure Garden bounces out, races prominently and jumps as well again. I think he may just keep galloping up this hill. Of course, it's a class 5 and these horses can be more inconsistent, but he is now a x5 winner, inc x4 on the flat, so he has a good attitude and that's worth plenty. Big chance.
Do note Annie Nail for the future... three starts ago over the CD she hacked up, and while a 4 runner race, the second has since won x4. This is her first start in 296 days so I'm hoping she needs it - she'll give me a headache if she doesn't, but with any luck she runs well to a point and then tires, ready to strike next time, or the run after. More to come from her over fences.
8.05 Newmarket - Mighty River - 9/1 (each-way) - I wanted to highlight Neil Callan's form, who appears to have really got his eye in now, returned to the UK from Hong Kong. Stats... He's operating at a 15% winSR all rides since returning, and is12/45, 21p last 30 days, 6/12,9p +29 in last 14 days.
He's got x5 rides at Newmarket this evening, the first three big odds but all unexposed, and you never know. I thought Mighty River may be interesting - Stats trainer/jockey are 4/6,5p together in the last 14 days and Callan has a good record for Tate more generally since his return, 34% wsr, +21 - a combo woth noting.
Note; They team up in the 17.15 also in a maiden, Survivalist, unraced horse, no idea what to expect but the yard can ready them, odds may be no guide as they had a biggie win on debut at Ascot recently. One to keep an eye on, plenty of guesswork there but I suppose if I was track-side, that's where my £5 would go.
Back to Mighty River, who has some solid form to his name, is down in class here, has enough experience and returns to a sounder surface - he moved well at Donny for a long way, in a race that's working out, but appeared to get suck in the mud. I could be wrong there, but the hope is that a return to quicker turf inspires improvement. Maybe he's just an AW horse but this will tell us more. I also thought Callan may try and make all, in a race without loads of pace on paper - it's here to be stolen by someone. This horse looks like a galloper also and if handling the dip, could keep on rolling. Maybe. He is top weight, but hopefully for a reason, back down in class here. He has a fitness edge on many of these and the fav has to prove his stamina - he may improve for it of course but looks short on that basis. It is a 3YO handicap though, always some caution, but then I was 2/2 at Beverley with those, so here's hoping!
As always, do with those nuggest as you please, even if ignoring them/deciding against action, hopefully an enjoyable read.
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