Good afternoon, Friend,
I hope you had a great bank holiday weekend.
Today I've a few jumps trainer angles for you to muse over, note and use as you please.
As you know, my main 'tipping' focus/race analysis focus is on staying chases, 3m+, C3+ and obviously I'm looking forward to the return of jumps racing 'proper'.
With that focus in mind, I thought it made sense to gear more of my daily stats research/content/qualifiers, towards handicap chases - something I and members can use to help beat the bookies over the course of the season.
As such, I've started building up a portfolio of micro angles that I'll save to my HorseRaceBase accounts and from which I'll post the daily qualifiers. It is a challenge making this sort of approach work 'systematically', 'backing all', for all it's the holy grail. In part due to the fact trainer angles can be smaller sample sizes, and many factors can impact how a trainer's season plays out.
However, they can always be useful added info, or a 'way in' for further analysis. (especially pace analysis - 64% or so of all UK handicap chases are won by horses who lead or race prominently) I'll keep everything crossed that from mid-October they'll fire out many winners and work as a systematic portfolio, but I thought some of you may enjoy flicking through and noting the below...
I should add, it's likely I'll pull these into a proper report, including a table of the results per year, but for now...
Staying Chase Angles
All stats from 2014 (8 calendar years) ... they're listed in the order I researched them, and this batch are all 'track based'...
Paul Nicholls
24 bets / 7 wins / 10p / 29% sr / +55 SP / +67 BFSP / BFAE 2.36
Gordon Elliott
39 bets / 11 wins / 18p / 28% sr / +43 SP / +63 BFSP / BFAE 2.17
Gordon Elliott
Leopardstown
24f+
All Non-Handicap Chases
Class 1
Aged 8 or younger
Any odds
30 bets / 10 wins / 13p / 33% sr / +42 SP / +56 BFSP / BFAE 1.95
Paul Nicholls
32 bets (21 races) / 8 wins / 15p / 25% sr / +29 SP / +33 BFSP / / BFAE 1.42
Colin Tizzard (now Joe)
Newbury
All Chases
2m7f+
Class 1
12/1 or shorter SP
21 bets / 9 wins / 14p / 43% sr / +25 SP / +33 BFSP / BFAE 1.64
Sue Smith
Catterick
All Chases
2m7f+
Class 1-3
Any odds
24 bets / 11 wins / 13p / 45% sr / +36 SP / +39 BFSP / BFAE 2.33
Willie Mullins
Limerick
All Chases
2m7f+
Class 1
Any odds
15 bets / 8 wins / 10p / 53% sr / +16 SP / +21 BFSP / BFAE 2.09
Venetia Williams
23 bets / 8 wins / 14p / 35% sr / +29 SP / +36 BFSP / BFAE 2.52
*
That's all for today, thanks for reading,
All the best,
Josh
