Good Afternoon, Friend
Hmm, well the less said about my Galway Plate analysis/selections the better! Poor. I am due a few big race clunkers after my mad Royal Ascot week, but even so, still frustrating when you're that wrong!
Sam Darby's Free Tips Friday...
Before I get onto the Galway Hurdle, Sam's column is now up with plenty to read through and digest. He's attacked the 3pm from Goodwood tomorrow and you can read his thoughts HERE >>>
To Galway...
You can find my Galway Hurdle trends & shortlists down below.
My two darts have landed on Gorgeous Tom and Nurburgring, and I've played them both at BFSP.
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Thursday: 5.05pm The Galway Hurdle
16/16 had 0-2 runs this season
16/16 had placed at least once last two starts
16/16 did NOT run in a race for maidens/novices/beginners LTO
16/16 did NOT run in a race for 5YO+ LTO
16/16 did NOT run over 16.5-17f LTO
16/16 won LTO or beaten no more than 10l (10.5l + , 0/88,9p)
15/16 had run at G1/2 level prev in career
12/16 Aged 6 or 7
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Applying the trends…
Taking the first four 16/16 stats, IF upholding, would point to a more manageable list of nine…
Petrol Head, Under Control, Gorgeous Tom, Fascile Mode, Nurburging, My Mate Mozzie, Daddy Long Legs, Anotherway, Winter Fog
Applying the other two 16/16 stats, if upholding, would point to five…
Gorgeous Tom, Fascile Mode, Nurburgring, My Mate Mozzie, Winter Fog
IF having a prev run at G1/G2 stat holds, from that list of five, only Gorgeous Tom falls down on that, but a 15/16 stat.
It can pay to have a 6 or 7YO onside in this, 12/16, and the age band with the most winners by far, but younger and older horses take this also, so one to be cautious over, but from the original long list of nine, two are the ‘right’ age…
Gorgeous Tom, Fascile Mode
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
All of Willie Mullins
Joseph O’Brien’s x2.
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I'll be back in touch next week. I've a 3am start Friday morning as I head over to Galway for a couple of day's racing and entertainment, our highlight being Kaleb in the 5pm, who's travelled over well. 20 of us will be trackside and we can't wait.
IF he can travel with zest and keep tabs during the first mile, a big run could be incoming, he should be staying on if running his race. He may not want loads of rain but that's the case for a few of them, and he handles softer, he's just better on decent ground. It's been mainly dry all week and typically Friday now looks a wet one! If he could run on into the top 4-6 we'd be ecstatic, we shall see! My hope is a monsterous run is incoming, we shall soon find out. Provided he comes back safe, we'll be enjoying the Irish hospitality.
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Good luck with any bets and have a great weekend,
All the best,
Josh
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