Hello, Friend

Not far off with the pace angles yesterday, hopefully someone had a saver on the danger horse, Lezardrieux, who won 5s>7s, my main fancy running so-so, maybe that track was too sharp for him and he didn't like the bend. He's got a flat 6f in him somewhere.

There was another make-all winner in a 6f handicap, Little Red Dancer, 12s>15/2, (urgh), who pre race it was clear could make all from a low draw - I didn't have a penny on, more fool me. It was a C6 3YO only handicap, the filly 0-14 going into it, for all arrived in form. Darn, I should have mentioned her and left you to make a decision, apologies, next time.

Onto today... one of you is off to Pontefract this evening and asked for some thoughts, which I've shared down below. The last 'through the card' hit 5/7, so here's hoping! (cue an abysmal effort!)

Before that...

Sam Darby's 'Free Tips Friday' post went up last night, and you can read it HERE >>>

He's looked at the 6.25 Ponte and packed plenty of value into his musings as always. He isn't overly bullish this time, but his two for interest are Global Spirit (now 5s) and Garden Oasis (16s) - i've had a small interest on both, in what looks a trappy contest, but when looking myself, did end up liking Global Spirit strongly enough, poor sod. I won't be crying if Garden Oasis can win at those odds though!

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Pontefract 'Through The Card'

6.25 - Global Spirit - 5/1

6.55 - Quandary - 8/1

7.25 - Nellie Leylax - 10/11

7.55 - Carrigillihy - 5/2 (NAP, if I must!)

8.25 - Make A Prophet - 11/1 - EW 4p

8.55 - Ventura Express - 10/3

Global Spirit - trappy race, not many results would suprise me here. I like Jason Hart, esp when riding prominently and this one shouldn't be far away. Roger Fell/Jason Hart are 3/11,4p, +15 SP together around here. The horse is 2/3 over the CD, those wins on Good to Firm and it could be he likes hearing his hooves rattle these days. He's now below his last winning mark and has been running well enough this season. He needs more, but the CP return which could liven him up, and he's back at his fav venue and on proper fast ground for the first time this season. IF he runs his race, he'll be bang there. He will be winning again around Pontefract, hopefully today. Fell does well with his quick returners also. Global Oasis may go well here and leave his debut behind, he is well handicapped, another CD winner, hard to know what form he's in as yet but if he can get out and across from 11, without being stuck wide / or using up too much fuel to do so, he could run a big race.

Quandary - not a confident pick but I thought the winner may struggle to give the penalty away, but she may not of course. Still, giving 7lbs to the rest a big ask but the only LTO winner in the field, maybe the rest just moderate. It's her first run on turf also. Quandary represents the in-form Ed Bethell team, they do well here, the jockey is 12/44,21p for them. She ran ok on debut here over 6f, the front two have since bolted up. LTO was a bit underwhelming - however, both runs so far with soft in the going, and maybe 'good to firm' will transform her - maybe. It may not of course! She also drops back to 5f which is interesting and down in class. At the odds, that's where my track side change would go. I suppose of those near the top end, Oneforsue was of some minor promise, given some tough tasks, now races on quick ground for first time also. No forlorn hope.

Nellie Leylax - short in terms of wading in with a single but possibly one for muggy multiples if that's your thing! He sets a very good standard here after his win LTO, blowing the start, still winning, front two miles clear, the 2nd had experience going into it. Fast ground an unknown but could be a reason for further improvement. He could be smart enough and if running his race, sets a decent bar for the others. Tom Dascombe does well with Last Time Out Winners, 20/62,30p, +59 SP in the last 2 years, and that's a micro worth noting.

Carrigillihy - hard to say 5/2 is value now, but with 'I want winners' eyes, he looks very solid here. He's 3/3 over the CD, and you'd like to think has been prepped for a return here on his 3rd start of the season. He could be spot on. He won off 71 as a 3YO, his last two wins off 68 and 69. He races off 69 here, so is handicapped to go well. He should appreciate this return to faster ground and is well drawn to get out and track the pace in 2nd or 3rd, no excuses. He's a consistent sort and I'll be disappointed if he's not bang there today. He's entitled to get better as a 5YO also.

Make A Prophet - as I type the 2nd fav has just been withdrawn so some sort of R4 incoming, but this one may drift back out to 10s or so. He's up against a load of 3YOs here who are much better off at the weights, so it could be a stiff task but they all have numerous questions in conditions also. Plenty of lightly raced sorts moving up in distance though, so something could take a step forward. This one and Absolute Queen are the only two with placed efforts on Good to Firm turf, although an unknown for many. Unlike most in here, he's also proven over the distance and will stay, the only horse with previous course experience also. If he got back to his 10f form of June-Aug last season, he'd be thereabouts here. This is his first run on turf of the season and in these conditions. I don't know why Graham Lee isn't on, booked for the top-weight, maybe to put punters off the sent so Midgley can get on, I don't know! But Paul has ridden winners for the yard and rides this place well enough. Again well drawn and he should have a good trip round, hopefully putting his assured stamina to good use turning in. Dancing Gypsy is interesting, I wasn't sure this drop back in trip on fast ground was what he wanted, but I could be wrong there. In any case, 7/2 or so was getting a bit short for me, but he has a solid profile and is more solid than many in here.

Ventura Express - David Nolan is 4/14,7p +15 on Paul Midgley horses in the last year, for all again interesting that Graham Lee is on another one, making seasonal return and seemingly unfancied at the moment. Nolan has ridden this horse and he returns to turf after a short break, and he's won fresh before. He's the only horse in the race to have placed at C2 and C3 level, at his best he's showed more class than anything in here to date. This C4 should be within his grasp, now 1lb below his last winning mark. He's 2/8,4p over the CD also, both wins on Good to Firm, and I had to conclude he's been aimed at this since his last run, given the course form and his mark. Here's hoping. Vince Lombardi is solid after his win LTO, Good to Firm is just an unknown, for all wins on Good, so maybe he'll be fine. His first run here. I looked at Late Arrival also, but talked myself out because of this 5f trip - all firm over 5.5f or further and won over 7f in younger days - were this 6f, he'd be the one, and if I've got him wrong so be it, but I thought he could find this happening all a bit too quickly at times - of course, connections will know that, and Jo Mason may be very very aggressive - if this one is a length or two up entering the final furlong, they may not get to him. But, he may lack the pace to get to the front, we shall see.

So, an interesting little card to my eyes, hopefully I've landed on a winner or two, but as always, have a read, use as you please and if you like your stats angles, a few above to note down moving forward.

I'm off to a friends wedding tomorrow, and they're also doing something Sunday afternoon. On Bank Holiday Monday it's Suffolk vs Cheshire in a county cricket game, being played at Mildenhall CC, which is just behind my new apartment, a 20 second stumble! Also a Cider Festival, so I'll have to swing by, it would be rude not to. The weather looks good.

So, there may not be much from me until Tuesday, we shall see. I'm then off to another wedding Wed-Friday, not mine! It's all go but in that age bracket now.

The end of April saw the end of my daily blog posts/subscription service (i've yet to work out what comes next), and quite frankly it's been rather enjoyable not forcing posts, 7 days a week. The mind feels much better. Onwards.

As always, good luck with any bets,

Josh

p.s don't forget to get your one-off Scoop6 Ticket HERE >>