5.08 Chepstow

Lanspark – 12/1-11/ – Each-way

I think this is all about whether this lad jumps, and if he does, he won’t be out the first three here! Some stats.. R Llewellyn is in fine form, 3/5,4p all runners in the last 14 days, +24 SP, a smaller yard to keep an eye on. He does well with his handicappers off a 60+ day break also… 4/15,8p, +17 SP so far, including Top Cloud winning on seasonal return 4 days ago. A decent conditional has been booked and I hope this has been the plan…

The horse is a hurdles winner around here, this distance, back when with the Tizzards, and I’d like to think the new trainer (3rd start for him) has come back here deliberately. He’s 3/11,6p in handicap hurdles, the last of those off 104, only 3lb higher here. The ground appears important to him, in all handicaps, he’s 0/8,2p with good in the going, 3/4,4p when it’s soft or heavy. With 25mm of rain last night and more rain through the day, I can’t have it that they’ll be any ‘good’ in this ground, which is a negative for most others in here. He’s got some solid hurdle runs to his name in the slop but does just look like a slogger, who will keep galloping.

The question is the fences… he only had one go previously for Tizzard’s on seasonal return, when he was very inexperienced generally, just the 5th run of his life around Lingfield. The ground may have been quick enough there but he jumped well, until getting the 11th a bit wrong which appeared to knock his confidence. I’m hoping this wide expanse, with time between fences, softer ground etc, may work wonders – as could his new trainer. He looks ‘the’ bet in here at double figures, as that allows the chance to be taken re his jumping, but obviously he’s unexposed.

I didn’t like much else at the prices, not in this ground. That’s a big question for many, maybe something will get away with it.

I should mention Snowy Evening, a ‘chase angle’ qual on the blog, for a Greenhall angle I’ve saved. On this horse’s Point form and his best bumper effort, he should be much better than a mark of 106 in time. He PU twice when last seen, looks a bit of a monkey under pressure (still yet to win) and he didn’t jump hurdles very well at all, clumsy. He’s related to the odd chaser and I suspect this will be his game and if he’s to win, it will be over fences. He’s only 6 with time on his side. I suspect he’ll leave this mark behind at some stage, I hope it’s not today! But it could be!

If he pings the first few and holds a handy position, I’ll watch through my fingers. 13/2 or so at the moment, I didn’t think overpriced, but that’s a subjective view and I’m wrong plenty! They’ve left the TT off and I don’t know for sure that he’s fit. Just a few too many niggles at that price, but one to keep an eye on. Hopefully for the future, and not today, for all I know what happens now. He is the one I’d take forward from this, if he runs well/jumps.

I do think this is all about how Lanspark jumps, and at double figures, given all the above, I’ll roll the dice! I didn't think the top two in the market liked soft ground, but the odds/support suggests I've got that wrong!

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Further notes…

Those above are my own bets on today’s card and I’ll watch the rest with interest. The stats quals continue to fire out winners and I hope you’re landing on the odd one. I will miss plenty, that’s the nature of the beast when using as a ‘starting point’, and do make your own call on those, don’t just listen to me.

Paul Nicholls – just to note that in a quote I’ve read, he’s very bullish about this weekend in sense that all his horses running at Chepstow have done plenty of work, are fit enough to win, and I sense he’s expecting a good time of it. We shall see how that plays out! They will need to be fit in this ground.

The stats quals… a couple of Jonjo 'October' Qualifiers above, and in these non-handicaps there often isn’t much else to go on, and maybe sometimes fact they hit the stats, a nice price, breeding good, yard form etc is enough!

Of further note… Jonjo is 5/24,11p, +7 with his Chepstow non-handicappers (hurdles/NHF) in the last 2 years, when Junior has been riding. They are in-form, 3/9,5p +10 together in the last 30 days…

Zonda – one to keep an eye on more generally, very well bred, related to some decent hurdlers which suggest this one should have above-average ability. This is his first ever career start though (Jonjo is 14/91,34p, +38 with such types last 2 years) so who knows what to expect! They’ve clearly given him time, aged 5. No point exp, they’ve skipped bumpers and gone straight over timber. He was put in at 13/2, and it will be interesting to see what the market does. But a big run from him would be no shock, just whether a lack of exp catches him out, and is he fit?! But, given his breeding, one for the tracker. His relations are all 2m-2m4f winners, so he should have the speed.

Inch House – makes chase debut, an Irish point winner who cost £125k, they haven’t wasted much time in going chasing. This is a fascinating race for the future, this lad evidently has ability and will be popping up in 3m+ chases through the season and into next. He won around here over hurdles when last seen. Plenty of guesswork as always today, inc whether fit and how he’ll jump, will be be gunned or an educational ride for the future? At 4s, personally, that’s the sort of price, in this sort of race, I can just watch, and if another ‘missed winner’, so be it.

Bethka – hits some of those Jonjo stats above also… ran ok in bumpers, including around here but outpaced and a few in here have much better NHF form and could just have more class. She’s well bred though, out of Walk In The Park, related to a few decent hurdle/chase winners up to 3m. It could be that chasing is her game down the line, anything over hurdles a bonus, but she’s shown a good attitude, may not mind a slog and steps up in trip here on hurdling debut. I’ve no idea if she can jump! The market suggests not today, we will see, but another to keep an eye on moving forwards, there should be races in her. At 16s, the sort where you could just roll the dice EW with the ‘interest change’ pot – so hard to have much confidence in races of this nature.

Those at the top of the market, esp Fergal’s, have done more in NHF races to-date, Paul’s an ex point winner, and those two trainers have won this x4 between them. We will see how it pans out!

That’s all for Friday!

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Have a great day and thanks for reading,

Josh

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