Good Morning, Friend,
Below you can find a poke from Sam Darby and my Sat Trends Shortlists and Trainers...
One of those days at Worcester yesterday, my 'TTC' producing 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th! Consistent if nothing else. Tiger Orchid was probably the most annoying omission, not far off him, but alas. A £2.50ew treble on my 'nap' and x2 'next best' returned £10 or so profit which pays for two pints at my local.
Shan ran his heart out again, but that weight in that ground did just anchor him, giving 17lb to the winner, who was only rated 7lb inferior. Had he not bungled the last he'd have likely been 2nd, alas. Had his opening handicap mark been in the low 90s, he'd have been a x2, x3 winner by now, he was just a bit too honest in his maiden/novice hurdles, and given my experience with him, I can see why many connections have to 'legitimately handicap' their horses, otherwise you can get stuck on a mark it's very hard to win from, esp if you're not the biggest and have to lug a big weight. He is a very solid 105 horse, that's him. His opening mark of 106, higher than any RPR he's posted, not helpful! In 7 runs since the sods have only dropped him 3lb, such is his consistency, but keeps bumping into one or two, which won't be the case forever. Still, he tries and would run through a brick wall for you, it's only a matter of time. We may try him over 2m7f-3m next, a visor, a more patient ride and probably a decent 5lb claimer and see how he goes.
Sam Darby had a good time of it yesterday, pulling in nearly +37 points for members, which was welcome.
Farr Too Shy got the job done, also one of my 'eye-catchers', so I hope some of you may have had a nibble - I was distracted by Worcester of course and failed to mention her, alas, but that's why they're worth entering in your trackers. They've found a few winners now, as well as a few losers of course, but a decent starting point.
Back to Sam, and his Free Tips Friday column went up this morning.
He fancies Isle Of Dreams in the 4.55 Thirsk.
You can read why, including his main dangers, on the blog HERE >>>
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Saturday's Big Race Trends
You can find my completed trends post, including shortlists against the trends profile, and trainer pointers, on the blog HERE >>>
Applying the trends…
2.40 York - Skybet Dash
Applying the first three trends (ignoring odds for now) would point to 14/15 winners, and if upholding would point to a long list of 8 (‘removing’ 7 horses)…
Mondammej, Lethal Levi, It Just Takes Time, Summerghand, Magical Spirit, Barefoot Angel, Hyperfocus, Zarzyni
12/1 or shorter SP has generally been a decent guide in this.
From that longer list, those drawn in stall 12 or lower has also been a good guide, for all such things can change season to season, and pace always plays some role… still, that leaves six…
Mondammej, It Just Takes Time, Summerghand, Magical Spirit, Barefoot Angel, Zarzyni
From the original long list, running at Newcastle, Ascot or Hamilton has been a positive (as opposed to a negative for elsewhere), and that would point to four …
Lethal Levi, Zarzyni, Hyperfocus and Magical Spirit… Zarzini and Magical Spirit also drawn 12 or lower.
With any luck the winner is mentioned there, just a case of landing on the right one!
Trainers (with runners/to have won race prev 15 years)
Lethal Levi
Aberama Gold , Summerghand,
Music Society, Hyperfocus, Minila Scouse
Zarzini
International Girl, Barefoot Angel
Abduction
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3.00 Ascot - The International Stakes
The first six trends would have found 13/15 winners (13/114 runners, 29p, although 0/8 last year) and IF upholding this year, would point to a long list of eight…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Ramazan, Escobar, Top Secret, Orbaan
Age 4 or 5 is a positive, and from those, only Montassib hits that
A top 3 run at least once last three starts has been a positive…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Ramazan, Top Secret
Those to have run on a straight course LTO, from that original group of eight…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Top Secret
Those with 0-1 win over 7f: Ramazan & Orban
Those to have run at Royal Ascot of July Cup Festival on last start has been a positive…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Montassib
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
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In terms of today... i've got three 'eye-catchers' running, which may be worth a closer look. I've not had time has yet to have a deep dive into them or their races, i'll leave that to you...
3.35 Ascot - Gaasee 11/8 & Nolton Cross9/1 - the former is quite short here, a concern he may not get the pace required again but maybe Marquand will have him handier. No shock if he wins obviously but well found. I think Nolton Cross may be best prominent in a smaller field, kicking and trying to hold on (poss back on the sand) - that may come to pass here in a race without loads of pace on paper, but soft ground a complete unknown, I suspect a reason he hasn't run on it before but you never know.
7.15 York - Mukaddameh - 20/1 - a Royal Ascot eye-catcher when patiently ridden and running on well from the back with the jockey not moving for an age, and then finding plenty of trouble. She's proving a bit tricky and maybe her mind is gone. She is back up in distance here which should help, softer ground an unknown (would be a reason for a shocker). This is a listed race, a step up from that handicap, but you never know. She's run well at Group level last season, but may need a strong pace/plenty of luck. Her mark looks workable if running back in handicaps but you never know, she could out-run her odds here, for all the 3YOs get chunks of weight.
As always, do with that lot as you please but hopefully those trends pointers and trainer lists may help guide you to the winner or a decent place or two. I do plan on having a look, time allowing, and will send out any thoughts on those races in due course.
All the best,
Josh
