Hello, Friend,

Below you can read Sam Darby's 'Free Tips Friday' preview, where he's taken an in-depth look at the 2.05pm from Chester. As always there's plenty to mull over, including horses for the notebooks. Sam arrives in good form, having had two winners in a row for this new free column at 6/1 and 5/2. Can he bring up the hat-trick?

We had great fun at Fontwell yesterday, our plucky Shandancer bouncing back to form and running a cracker, his best effort for us. Sadly he bumped into one again but at least we were beaten by the 'right' one given his price/profile/mark/previous form. I think he had a bit up his sleeve still and I'm not sure there's anything Shan or Jack could have done to change that result. That's now 5k in place prize money he's won, so half-way to covering his capital cost! But, he's a great fun syndicate horse - he's sound (touch wood), runs plenty, versatile ground wise and always tries his best. It's just my job to find him a winnable race or in the coming weeks. His season will look very good if we can get a '1' next to his name. I suspect once we've got a hurdle win out of him we may see what he can do on the flat/AW also. Maybe there's a 2m handicapper in there, at his level of course. It's only a matter of time.

Two winners for my 'through the card' at 5/2 and 5/1 added to the evening. It's now all systems go for Market Rasen tomorrow. Hopefully we can star our new adventure with Dr Richard Newland with a bang!

For now, over to Sam...

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Taking Pride In An Easy Lead Could Be Profitable On The Roodee

Hitting some form now with Dream Composer winning last week, making it two in a row. If you got the early price you’ll have been paid just under 3/1 after the rule 4 deductions, in the end that wasn’t massively bigger than the SP of 5/2.

Annoyingly I decided against making Dream Composer one of my ‘official’ tips. In the end I got a bit too hung up on him perhaps needing a stiff finish to be seen to best effect over the minimum trip so I advised no bets on Friday. I did mention Dream Composer and The Gatekeeper (at Newmarket) as nearly bets, and both ended up winning, so guess I shouldn’t have been so careful with my bets that day!

Top Quality Cards On Friday

I’m rather spoiled for choice with regards to which race to cover this week. There is the Chester Cup and some other nice handicaps being run on the Roodee plus some other really interesting races down at Ascot.

I’ve got some bets lined up for both the Chester Cup and at Ascot but I’m interested in a particular angle in the 2.05pm at Chester, which is a 10 runner handicap over the extended 10f.

Ignoring The Draw At Chester?

First a note on the draw. It’s often the be all and end all here but it’s not as much of a factor over this trip as some of the shorter distances plus in bad ground they tend to come quite wide in the straight anyway so I’m not going to massively focus on stall position here in a 9 runner race where there might yet be non runners.

Change Of Betting Plan

I thought my money would be going the way of Baryshnikov in this race and he looks to have been laid out for this given it’s one he won last season off the same mark. He went into last year’s race off the back of winning a warm handicap at Pontefract and he again ran at Pontefract in the build up to this race, staying on into 3rd from an impossible early position. He had a poor draw that day at Pontefract and looked as though he was ready to win again when getting his favoured soft ground and a decent pace to aim at.

The booking of wonderkid Billy Loughnane catches the eye, even if he is only claiming 3lbs these days, and the fact they may well fan out in the straight should increase the likelihood of him getting a clear run through so there is plenty to like with the stable going well. I did think he’d be bigger than a general 5/1 though and I always like to be wowed by a price at Chester if backing a hold up performer there and that price just didn’t wow me. He surely has to run well though.

Look Out For Groundbreaker Soon

Another runner I thought I might be backing is Groundbreaker. He was quite highly tried last season, running in several listed contests, but it’s his two handicap runs where he caught the eye. He didn’t get a clear run when 4th at Royal Ascot in the 10f handicap for 3yos and then on his final run last season he was 4th in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury, probably shaping as though he wanted further. That race has worked out well with the runner up winning a Group 3 and Group 2 since (now 13lbs higher). The 3rd has won a listed race since and the 6th won the Cambridgeshire a week later so it was clearly a strong race.

Groundbreaker has been gelded since, which Andrew Balding thinks has improved him, and he’s proven on ground ranging from good to firm to good to soft. This will likely be the softest ground he’s raced on which is a question mark, even more so on seasonal debut against rivals who have already had a run. The fact that he shapes like he wants further is a worry around here too. I’ll be giving him a miss here but I like him for good 12f handicaps this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a Old Newton Cup type.

Pride’s Pace The Deciding Factor

Given Pride Of America was beaten by Baryshnikov at Pontefract last Spring and is now 19lbs worse off I didn’t think he would be on my radar as a bet in this but having looked into this further, I now like his chances. He might be much worse off with Baryshnikov from their meeting a year ago but he did seem to go off too hard that day which set things up for his rival and he did well to keep hold of 2nd that day.

He was hugely progressive last season too, winning before Pontefract and then winning again on his next two starts after Pontefract. One of those wins came at this meeting, on the Thursday, when he made all and won by no less than 5.5 lengths. He then followed that up with another easy win in a small field at Haydock. For whatever reason he was then below par in Compeigne but after a break and a wind operation he was back at it with a 2.25 length win at Kempton. The runner up won a couple of starts later to give that form a boost.

Pride Of America tasted his first handicap defeat since Baryshnikov beat him, next time out at Chelmsford, which implies the handicapper finally has him. Or has he though? He wasn’t ridden as aggressively as normal that day though (usually builds up a big lead). The winner was actually the runner up behind Pride Of America on his previous start and he wasn’t weighted to reverse for the form in that manner so it’s probably fair enough to say Pride Of America wasn’t at his best. Either way it was a decent race with the winner and runner up both finishing 2nd in handicaps since and the 3rd caming 6th in a strong renewal of the Lincoln over a trip that would have been short enough for him.

He showed more of his usual zest 7 weeks ago at Saint Cloud when only fading late over 12f in a listed race, with his stamina giving out eventually. He’s been given another wind op since which suggests he can improve on his last couple of outings.

It’s difficult to argue that Pride Of America is well ahead of the handicapper but he’s still relatively lightly raced for a 6yo after 15 starts, he’s won easily off a 4lb lower mark, he handles the soft ground and he’s clearly at home around a tight, turning track. The main factor that makes him a bet though is the fact there doesn’t seem to be any other pace in the race. In fact, there isn’t really even a prominent racer in this field so Pride Of America could get one of the easiest leads in history if things go to plan. With that in mind he looks far too generous a price at 15/2 with most bookies.

Also Rans Or Contenders?

I’m slightly surprised Savvy Victory is such a warm favourite at around 10/3 and I’m keen to take him on. In fairness he has some useful handicap form, including a staying on 5th in the Cambridgeshire over a trip that would have been plenty sharp enough, but he’s 5lbs higher here and he doesn’t look the speediest so this track might not play to his strengths. It would be no surprise if he rates higher yet but for his ability it’s disappointing he’s only won twice from fourteen starts.

Fantastic Fox is going to pop up in a 10f handicap on soft ground soon. Roger Varian’s string seemed to be improving for the run when he was 4th at Epsom on seasonal debut so he could easily step forward from that and he’s well handicapped on plenty of pieces of form. He likes to come from behind though and things might not set up for him here.

Maksud’s best form is over a bit further so this looks a bit of a prep run first time out whilst Lord Protector falls under the ‘well handicapped but difficult to predict’ category. He’ll pop up soon but it might be on slightly better ground as he was disappointing at Epsom. Ideally he wants to be dropped out in the rear (was prominent last time) and those exaggerated waiting tactics might be tough to pull off in this.

The remaining 3 runners all have plenty to prove here. 

Final Verdict

Groundbreaker is the one who makes the most long term appeal but a tactical race over this trip at Chester probably isn’t what he wants, plus he has to prove it on the ground. Savvy Victory will handle the ground but there are similar worries about the suitability for this race for him.

Everything looks in place for a big run from Baryshnikov other than getting a really strong pace to chase down. He should still run well but he’s another who might end up giving too much leeway to Pride Of America out in front. He still managed to reach 3rd last time out from too far back when badly drawn so he shouldn’t be completely written off. I’ll likely be including him in a reverse forecast with Pride Of America on the basis that they are both proven round here on soft.

It’s PRIDE OF AMERICA who makes most appeal as a single though given his quite generous price of 15/2. He’s almost certainly been saved for this since his wind op and at the very least I can see him trading sub 2/1 in running and probably quite a bit shorter than that. Even if he ends up getting headed by a better treated rival late on I’d still be fairly surprised if he doesn’t stick on for at least a place so he’d rate as a small to medium each way single for me.

Good Luck, Sam.

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Thanks for reading,

All the best,

Josh