Hello, Friend

To Exeter, and Hereford...

It's been a decent couple of weekends on the blog what with the Cesarewitch winner at 14/1 and on Sunday just gone, The Durham National winner at 15/2. That was an exciting watch and put everyone in a good mood! The jumps season is hotting up and there's much to look forward to in the weeks and months ahead. My staying chase eyes are starting to click into gear (to no doubt come crashing down below!)

There have been plenty of winners flying around the Members' Telegram group also, a cracker from Myles C at Sedgy on Sunday with an 8s winner and Chris C has fired in a few. As has Simon B on the flat, and he won Saturday's tipping comp... napping 40/1 winner Art Power! Madness. I think a few followed him in for interest EW.

Gevrey also won on Sunday at 13/2, the first runner from Cleeve's '10 to follow' report, so that's had a decent start. Long may it continue.

Yesterday afternoon I was at Plumpton to cheer home our RTP Syndicate horse Kaleb, who ran a stormer in the 4.15, under a big weight on seasonal return. He'd mentally forgotten how to race for a time, maybe until 2 out, and he was outpaced from flag fall, but stormed up the hill for a fine 2nd. We thought Top 4 was achievable, and somehow he was 50/1-40/1 with 4 places in some places the evening before. Of course that's always an added bonus. His first proper summer holiday has done him the world of good and an exciting season awaits. Maybe he'll take us to the odd nice big handicap in time.

Onto today... and I've just repeated my 'Today's Notes & Pointers' musings from the Members' Club. Do with them as you please...

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TODAY’S NOTES & POINTERS

Three horses of interest for me today, starting with a cracker of a 3m chase at Exeter, and one of interest from the stats above…

3.00 Exeter

Lounge Lizard – 7/1 – 13/2

Northern Poet – 12/1

One from the daily stats qualifiers (posted on blog), of interest…

5.15 Hereford – Diamond Dice – 7/1-15/2 – Each-way

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Notes …

300- Exeter – what a cracker of a handicap chase to get the jumps juices flowing, these Exeter C3s are what the games all about! I had a shortlist of four for this… Snipe, Manothepeople, Lounge Lizard and Northern Poet, and as is my want, I’ve gone for the two at bigger odds, for all I’ve odd niggle on the two shorter ones. All four of these horses WILL be winning more 3m+ handicap chases, it’s just a question of when, all progressive, with better chase days ahead of them.

Lounge Lizard – he looked a staying chaser going places last season and with the blinkers on and Harry C booked, I’m assuming he’s fit enough to do himself justice here. Harry is 3/10,5p riding for Daly, one of those wins on this lad. The horse is 2/5,4p chasing, more to come, and ran well on seasonal return last season over hurdles, 23f, staying on all the way to the line beaten 2 3/4 lengths, this price just allows the play for me to assume he’ll be fit. His form took off when the blinkers were applied – that may suggest he’s a bit tricky but he finishes his races as if genuine, and hopefully they continue to help him. He bolted up at Catterick from a horse who then bolted up herself twice on the bridle. Taunton, under Harry, was a facile victory also, on the bride, and while the form ‘so-so’, he was beating an in-form horse there who arrived on the back of a facile victory himself. It does have some substance, as does his final run at Aintree, where Harry was intent on making up his mind for him but got in a pace battle on the front. I put him up as an EW bet to nothing that day and thankfully he obliged in 3rd, but he just went far too hard on the front, a bit of a poor ride from Harry but I think he spent a circuit thinking his rival would sod off but by the time he did, it was too late, the other two breezed past – but they’re solid yardsticks. It could be he’d had enough by then also. He’s entitled to improve again this season and I assume Harry will be aggressive, but hopefully doesn’t go mad! I think he could lead this, if Connor Brace kindly slots into 2nd. Whatever he does here it should be ‘money loaned’, but I think he could run a massive race here and 13/2 has tempted me in.

As we know, 67% or so of ALL handicap chases are won by horses to race prominently/lead, and if there’s one way to try and improve results, or help with analysis, using pace maps has to be up there. (plenty of hold up chasers do win of course, it's just harder to do so generally)

Northern Poet – he just shouldn’t be 12/1 and if he had a sexier set of connections next to his name he’d be half this price on his form and profile. He arrives here on a x4 timer, his form taking off when tackling fences and moving up to 20f, and then 24f. His jumping got better with each run also for all this will be a new test for him, but built into the price. I think he’s going to relish this stiff finish and I’m hoping James D rides him a bit handier than he has at times, but in part that’s because he didn’t have the speed for shorter. He raced prominently when last seen and I’d like it if they bounce him out close enough. He’s up in class here, again built into his price for me, but his form, for the level he was running at, has a solid look to it. He was generally beating in-form, well handicapped horses in behind, x8 subsequent winners in behind him from those last three victories. He looks like a staying handicap chaser going places. I have to assume he’s fit, last season he won on his return, after a 624 day break, making up for lost time. Evidently Nick can get him fit at home. Of some interest, he made his seasonal return here in October 2020, over 19f, novice hurdle, and stayed on well, beaten 2l. He also won his first ever career start in NHF races – he just has to be fit and ready to go here. Exciting. For now! He’s 5/16,11p in his career, a very likeable type, and will be winning more staying handicap chases on his next 1-3 starts. He just has to, if holding his form and well placed. Good ground looks ideal, and he won’t mind a drop more rain, hopefully this is GS at worst. If somehow a deluge and this turns proper soft, that would be question for him. But it’s been so bone dry at Exeter I’m not anticipating such a quick change, on a course they can’t naturally water.

Of the others…

Snipe may beat them all, but was short enough for me. He did bolt up at Southwell, but he isn’t the biggest visually, and while I think more wins in him, this is a big step up in quality for me. In saying that, he beat a horse who hacked up himself the time before – but it does feel like ‘summer form’. I could be very wrong there, but I’m interested to see how he copes with this opposition. I’m also hoping Harry rides him cold again, maybe he’ll switch it up, but it can be very hard to come from too far back around here, esp when the ground isn’t horrendous and they don’t stop in front. Still, at 5/2, I’ll cope, and if he takes this, fair enough. Evidently there’s more to come, but I’m hoping this oppo and track is a bit much for him – it may not be, but he’s not a fav I’m running scared of, not pre-race anyway! He does have more handicap chase wins in him though.

As does Manothepeople and he’s the other that wouldn’t be a big surprise of course. He’s got a likeable profile, was raw last season, but generally ran well, and could have a big season ahead of him. I’m hoping it doesn’t start here but he won on seasonal return last October. Going right-handed is an unknown over fences (has a win over hurdles) but at Chepstow in Dec and Newbury, he did hang left under pressure and looked a bit awkward. The fences around here are on the outside which could help him, as he’d hang into the rail and wouldn’t lose much ground. There could be nothing in that of course but is a niggle, at 5s. Well, an unknown. He also stopped very quickly at Ayr, maybe it was just the trip and it was a cracking run until 4 out, and maybe his stamina just went quickly. He led that Scottish Nat field until then, jumping well, and evidently has ability. There is a question as to what some of his form is worth also to my eyes, it’s ok, but not spectacular as yet. This trip, even around here, could be on the sharper side also, we shall see. So, he’s a danger, but I didn’t think overpriced as such and if he does cart home, I’ll curse momentarily, but deal with it.

I didn’t like the rest for various reasons.

Copperhead returned to form LTO but I think a few too many horses with a progressive profile in this. Maybe race fitness counts for plenty, and he’ll appreciate the slight step up in trip. The horse who beat him at Fontwell won again yesterday at Plumpton, for all the form is only ‘ok’. Copperhead’s best days are behind him, whereas for a few of these, their best days could be ahead of them, and I’ll always side with ‘progressive’ chasers where I can. However, I hope he goes well and maybe if mine/dangers are not fit/don’t run their race etc, he can go very close. He has a handicap chase win in him from this mark, and from January can run in Vets chases, which could suit him. Of some interest… he’s 5/13 in his career Dec-Feb, 0/13,3p all runs outside of that. There may not be much there, but something I’ve noted down.

I could leave the rest, for all Sam Barton should have more chases in him and Emma’s were in-and-out last season with the odd sickness issue, and this horse did go ‘pop’ twice, bleeding, hence the PUs. That would be a mild concern and in any case, I think his form is slightly below what some of these could be capable of, the yard in fine form though and he’s one to keep an eye on for a little handicap chase somewhere.

Pace… Loung Lizard should be bang there, Manothepeople may well be also. Any News, Sam Barton and Copperhead can track the pace. I’m hoping Northern Poet isn’t too far back but provided he jumps well, he will be staying on from 3 out.

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Diamond Dice – an ‘October Qualifier’ I’m hoping this horse is why Junior is here, and not at Exeter riding Itso Fury in an ok handicap. Maybe he’s here for Young Wolf, but those C5 handicap chases are ones I’ll only dabble in occasionally. That’s a trappy contest I had no strong views on…

A stat…Jonjo and Junior do very well at Hereford, 7/23,12p, +2 SP together, Jonjo 2/4,3p with his NHF runners here.

Back to this bumper… Jonjo’s youngsters have been running very well generally and he should have a good handle on them. He had a similar profile winner to this at Worcester who I skipped over at 4/1 or so, drifted to 9s and won. Urgh. This horse was looking like the winner of his maiden point when last seen, over 2m4f, and he was going to beat a horse Twister now has, who ran a fine 3rd on his NHF debut a couple of weeks back, beaten 1l, staying on. So, some early substance there. I only dive into these races really if the breeding suggests they can win a bumper also (and the point exp/form is welcome)… much like his Worc bumper winner (also a 4YO) his dam is an unraced half-sister to two useful bumper winners, who themselves were out of a useful bumper performer. There’s plenty of ‘bumper form’ in the blood, and hopefully its seeped through. I suppose quicker ground is a question, as it is for most in here, but I’ll have to trust the trainer there.

On paper, I think this is as good as it gets for a dabble in a NHF race – a ‘stats’ way in above with the Oct qual, further stats (TJC, track= NHF record), Point form/exp, related to bumper winners, yard in solid form. And an EW price. If it all goes to pot, so be it, looks good on paper!

The market suggests it’s about the Top 3 here. Maybe he’ll find the other two too strong, but Jamie’s is a 3m point winner and I’ll hope mine has a bit more boot, for all related to some speed. That point win was on proper soft.

Alan King’s may go well also with the exp of LTO under her belt, for all I wondered if this CD on decent ground may be sharp enough, but evidently has some ability and could come on bundles for the break. He’s only 7/76 with his horses having ‘2nd career’ start. But Alan has a fine record at the course also, 9/32,7p +19 since it reopened. 1/2,2p in bumpers.

Maybe those three will be battling it out. Or I’m nowhere near. But in I go for an interest dabble.

Update: Tom Symond's horse has since been well backed.

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That’s all from me today, thanks for reading, and good luck with any bets,

Josh

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