There is plenty of stats content to get stuck into also, to help you take control and find your own winners, saving time along the way. I do add notes with my tips, a window into how my own analytical racing brain works. As always, I'm confident we will do just fine long term...

The notes from my three recent winners...

Triple Trade – with any luck Joe has him tuned up here, the horse suffering sinus issues last season which the yard generally blamed for a bit of a no-show, for all he ran well at Kempton on his penultimate run. The yard are in decent form, they can ready them as we’ve already seen at this meeting in the Vets chase, and this lad has gone well on his return previously. There’s a small chance this is a prep for the 2m here in Dec but I hope not and at 11/2 I wanted him onside. In Oct 2023 he made a fine return around here, before then winning this race off 130. Two starts later he’d win off 135. Due to a poor season last year he’s now 12lb below that mark and undoubtedly well handicapped, even accounting for the fact that he may have regressed a smidge with age. He’s the only course winner in the field, that win over the CD, and I thought that would count for plenty also. He should race prom/mid div, and I’ll be disappointed if doesn’t run a big race here.

Marble Sands – 9s allowed the play to see if he improves for a proper staying trip – he may not stay, but on balance I can see why connections are trying it, it’s an unknown, and will unlock bundles more if it’s what he’s always wanted. He comes here fit after a very good run over 2m on the flat and that will count for something. He has course chase form, having finished 2nd to the ill-fated Springwell Bay around here over 2m4f, outpaced, staying on, the latter would have given Caldwell Potter a race at The Festival but for falling 3 out when tanking. Poor lad. Marble is generally a decent jumper, with some solid form to his name over shorter, inc beating Colonel Harry at Carlisle (this year’s easy Sefton winner), his Rehearsal Chase 3rd up at Newcastle not bad either, again outpaced over that 2m7f trip. So, we shall see. He may well enjoy this slower tempo, conditions hold no fear, and he’s either going to relish it and storm up the hill or flounder from 3 out, and at 9s, I thought enough there to pay to find out! He will win a handicap chase at some point this season from this mark, prob a Vets chase of his choosing in the New Year when he turns 10.

Be The Difference – one from the ‘in-form’ TJCs list here, 3/8,3p together in the last 14 days, Phil Kirby having hit some solid form more generally. He’s in that group of trainers who I struggle to get right, in part because they don’t fire in many winners, Phil operating at 7% all runners in the last year (24/343), and it’s hard to land on the right ones! I don’t think this is a great race, this lad knows how to win, is on his last winning mark, and his recent form is starting to look strong for the grade. Two starts ago he stayed on over 21f around here, beaten a ‘staying on’ 2L in 3rd, the winner that day won his next start. He then ran at Ayr, behind our RTP Syndicate horse, Buzz Icecear, who pulled well clear with one of Gordon Elliott's. That horse was 12lb below his highest winning mark and evidently is just best on softer ground – yesterday he bolted up at Navan in the 2nd race, a series finale, 1st blinkers, to give us a strong boost to the form. Be The Difference was 3rd at Ayr, but I don’t think is bumping into anything of their calibre here and we’d hope our Buzz is a better than a 0-100 horse in time, he certainly will be over a fence. Gordon’s is clearly a decent 110-115 handicap hurdler in his conditions. That is the best recent form on show here. This lad just had to be a bet to my eyes at 5s, trainer/jockey going well, horse in form, course form, stays well, ‘hot-form’ , on last winning mark etc. He may also appreciate this slightly better ground. What could go wrong?! He is ‘exposed’, but there are not really any unexposed horses I fear here – Nick Alexander’s fav is ‘the’ such type, 5/2 looking short enough to my eyes though, the yard not fully firing yet, the form only ok, stepping up to 3m with stamina to prove – may relish it of course, but short to find out. I didn’t like the rest for various reasons.

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I will be doing my best to fire in a few more winners like that in the days and weeks ahead, hopefully helping you more than pay for the winter ticket in 40 days time! (in any case it works out at only £3.99 per week, a bargain! :))

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I also need to email Andrew D, who won Saturday's Tipping Comp, as I owe him £25. A top effort on what was a tough day.

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Thanks for reading, and happy punting,

All the best

Josh

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