Good Evening, Friend,

It was pleasing to follow up yesterday's 12/1 2nd with a winner today, at 16s>25/1 (53/1 BFSP) in the 3.05, Jessie Harrington's Villanova Queen getting the job done under an excellent ride from Colin Keane. That takes Jessie's Royal Ascot stats with fillies to 4/14,6p in recent years, worth noting. That's a few pints in the pub paid for :)

Matt asked me to preview The Britannia on Day 3. I also thought he'd asked me to preview the King George V Stakes, which I did, but apparently a mix up there, with Gavin P having those honours. However, having done the work, i've repeated my musings below, and also my thoughts on The Britannia.

In truth, after today's winner, it doesn't much matter what the rest of them do this week, but I'll try my best to land on another one.

You can read my thoughts below, and previews for every race on Matt's blog, HERE >>>

Gavin P has a 33s winner to his name, myself now a 25s, maybe someone else's turn on Thursday.

My Previews...

3.05 PM – King George V Stakes

The trends…

Another fascinating puzzle awaits and thankfully I’ve got some trends to help me out. Hopefully they can work as well as they did in The Ascot Stakes. My own unique trends profile for this race is…

15/263, 60p (total winners, runners, placed horses)

13/15 had 2 or 3 runs this season (did not: 2/91, 18p)

13/15 placed on last start (standard place terms, did not: 2/94, 11p)

13/13 (of those with a career win) had won at C4 level or higher (had not: 0/92, 11p)

13/13 (of those with a career win) had won at least once last two starts (had not: 2/79, 11p)

This ‘trends profile’ has found 11 of the last 15 winners (11/73 runners, 32p, +60 Betfair SP) and every winner since 2014… IF upholding, and it’s always an ‘IF’ with such an approach, it would point to a shortlist of five…

Bertinelli, Wonder Legend, Burglar, Struth, Double March

This profile does not cover horses who’ve yet to win in their career (in Ireland/UK) of which there are two in this year’s race… Crackovia and Chillhi.

The trainers…

Charlie Appleby (2/12 runners, 5p) and Mark Johnston (now Charlie) (2/44,6p) are the only two trainers in the last fifteen renewals to have won this twice.

Of all trainers to have won this race previously in the period, those with runners this year are…

Tagabawa (Charlie Appleby)

Bertinelli (Aidan O’Brien) (who also hits my trends profile)

Perfuse (Sir Michael Stoute)

Davideo (Ralph Beckett)

Struth (Mark, now Charlie Johnston)

Crackovia (Mark, now Charlie Johnston)

Remember, these stats just focus on the previous 15 renewals, and while John Gosden has won this back in 1997, he’s 0/14,4p since 2008. However, it’s competitive stuff and the place record is solid. Andrew Balding is 0/15,4p, Haggas 0/6,0p, and Michael Bell 0/8,1p. We’ll see if they can get on the board this year.

Of those trainers with runners in the race who look in particularly good form in the previous 14 days… Aidan O’Brien (6/19,11p, 75% RB - rivals beaten), Charlie Appleby (5/15,7p, 75% RB) and Charlie Johnston (19/73, 31p, 57% RB). That’s not to say other trainers are out of form of course, just these three yards are going particularly well.

To the horses…

In a race packed with unexposed 3YOs, including ten last time out winners, I’ve stuck to my trends and trainer pointers and hope they work again. My two against the field…

Bertinelli – 13/2 - 7/1 - all the pointers suggest I should have him onside at what could be an EW bet to nothing, with 5-6 places up for grabs. Obviously, he’ll now finish a valiant 7th having met trouble in running but he ticks so many boxes – the trends profile, Aidan has won this previously and having dived in a bit deeper, does like running a classy top-weight in this. Now, clear top-weights are 0/12,6p in this, and maybe 9-9 will anchor him down, however he’s a big horse and Aidan with top-weights is 0/4,2p in recent years, including two close seconds (beaten a neck) both under the main man Ryan Moore. The yard is flying and trainer/jockey are 6/9,8p together in the last 14 days (that will change after Wednesday’s action of course). The horse is having the fourth run of his life, like many in here lightly raced. He won well at Newbury in The London Gold Cup, form that has yet to be really tested, and shaped as if he would relish this extra 2 furlongs. Aidan has talked about him as a ‘next year horse’ but hopefully he’s got enough about him for this test. It’s some ask off 104 but evidently more to come and they must think this mark is still workable in handicap company, having also considered the King Edward. They also have him in the 1m2f handicap on Saturday. Everything does scream a big run could be incoming, so fingers crossed.

Struth – 25/1 – at much bigger prices I want this Australia colt onside also, for the in-form Charlie Johnston. Joe Fanning is riding with plenty of confidence at the moment also, ticking along at 31% in the last 30 days, which is some achievement (27/86 rides, 36p). He ticks my trends profile and team Johnston know what’s required to win this race. The horse looks a progressive, hardy, stayer in the making. A trier who puts his head down and responds for pressure. Two starts back he won over this trip at Chester carrying 9-10, and doing it fairly comfortably. He then ran a cracker at Doncaster stepped up to C2, bumping into Saint George (who runs in the 5.35 Group 2 on Wednesday- update - he ran a cracker in 2nd) but pulling clear of the rest and still looking well handicapped. That was over 1m6f and this drop back in trip could help. Joe may be able to sit handy here and if he’s close turning in, I think he could just keep galloping on relentlessly, hopefully with the place never in doubt, and then we shall see!

*

5pm: Britannia Stakes

Ah, The Britannia Stakes… 33 unexposed 3 Year Olds, all still open to improvement run to run. Some will relish the occasion and relentless gallop we could see here, many will not. Nearly half the field won on their last start and you won’t be shocked to hear I’m relying on some help from my trends and trainer pointers…

The trends…

15/424,60p (total winners, runners, placed horses)

15/15 were top 2 at least once last three starts (were not: 067,4p)

15/15 0-3 runs this season (4+ : 0/42, 2p)

15/15 won by trainers with 1 or 2 runners in race (3+ : 0/71, 11p)

14/15 had run over no further than 8.5f in career (had: 1/85, 10p)

14/15 had not run at Ascot previously (had: 1/86, 8p)

14/15 had won at least once last three starts (had not: 1/127, 13p)

14/15 Top 5 last start (6th or lower: 1/98, 8p)

14/15 did not run in a C1 race last start (did: 1/64, 6p)

Applying those pointers would have found 11 of the previous 15 winners (11/128 runners, 32p, +127 Betfair SP), although it was 0/11 last year – that’s how it can go with this approach. If these trends bounce back this year, we’re looking at a long list of eight…

Quantum Impact, New Endeavour, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape, Highbank, Thunder Ball

The odds have been some guide in this, those sent off bigger than 28/1 SP 0/185,13p in the period. That could be something to keep an eye on.

An official rating of OR87-96 has been a sweet spot (excludes the top 6 in the weights this year) as has 6 or fewer career starts. Applying those pointers would leave five…

Quantum Impact, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape

The trainers…

Those to have won the race in the last fifteen renewals, with runners this year, are…

Quantum Impact (R Beckett)

New Endeavour (R Varian)

Royal Cape (H Morrison)

Carracci (A P O’Brien)

Of those trainers with runners in the race who look in particularly good form in the previous 14 days… Aidan O’Brien (6/19,11p, 75% RB - rivals beaten), Charlie Appleby (5/15,7p, 75% RB), Charlie Johnston (19/73, 31p, 57% RB), Jessie Harrington (6/25,10p, 62% RB), Dominic Ffrench Davis (3/9,3p, 57% RB) That’s not to say other trainers are out of form of course, just those five yards are going particularly well.

In the last fifteen renewals this isn’t a race where the likes of Charlie Appleby (0/10,1p), Richard Hannon (0/20,2p) or John Gosden (0/25,5p) have done overly well. Charlie Johnston has officially taken over the license from his dad Mark, but played an active role in recent years, but it isn’t a race they’ve done that well in either, now 0/34,3p. Maybe Charlie will have more luck under his own name. Of course, racing here is ultra-competitive and maybe one of those will get on the board this year, with nine runners between them.

To the horses…

In a race packed with unexposed 3YOs, including fifteeen last time out winners, I’ve stuck to my trends and trainer pointers and hope they work again. They may well do of course, and I’ve still picked the wrong ones from the long-list but my three against the field for interest…

Quantum Impact – SP – the bookies are not taking many chances with Frankie’s rides this week but a few of his have drifted out nearer the off and it could be worth taking a chance on SP, if you don’t have ‘best odds guaranteed’. 6s could be getting on the short side in a race of this nature but the horse hits my profile and Ralph knows what’s required to win this race. Frankie is good friends with the owners and it will be significant he’s on. He’s 8/21,12p +12 SP when riding for Ralph in the last year. There appears an even spread of pace on paper and it awaits to be seen if it’s best to be high or low. Hopefully there isn’t a track bias. The horse knows how to win and improved again stepped up to 1m on his last start. The 3rd there won a C2 on his next start so there’s substance to the form.

Royal Cape – 20/1 – another drawn low. Tom Marquand does well when riding for Hughie Morrison, 3/14,5p +18 SP in the last year and the trainer knows what’s required around here. This horse was a bit keen at Haydock, got shuffled back and wasn’t in the best position when the tempo lifted. He ran on well under gentle encouragement, on ground he may have found plenty quick enough. The winner that day is fancied for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on Saturday. He could well enjoy this sort of race set up, if patiently ridden and if settling early. Hopefully the occasion doesn’t get to him but he’s a big price for some fun interest.

Fort Vega – 22/1 – I thought it best to have one drawn high onside also, with pace that side also. Connections were thinking about the Irish 2000 Guineas and The Jersey Stakes for this horse, which suggests they think plenty of him and if they’re correct, he should be leaving behind a mark of OR89 in handicaps at some stage. Such Group level thinking may be fanciful but he’s got a progressive profile having won narrowly the last twice. He’s a powerful mover which should help in this sort of race and a more patient ride could help, having hit the front plenty soon enough last time, but showing a great attitude to hold on. The third that day won his next start, to add some substance to the form. He’s a likable horse who can hopefully outrun his odds, in another tricky looking contest.

*

Hopefully an interesting read and best of luck with any bets. I've probably used up all my luck but here's hoping for one more winner,

All the best,

Josh