Quick one to follow up on yesterday's email.

Every strategy, even the good ones, has a worst run in it somewhere. A run of reds that would make most people quietly give up.

The traders who stick around long enough to actually get somewhere aren't the ones who never hit that run. They're the ones who knew it was coming, roughly how bad it'd get, and kept going anyway because they'd already seen the shape of it.

Here's the actual question worth answering before you place another trade or another bet on whatever you're currently running.

What's the longest losing run this strategy has ever had?

What's the longest winning run?

Is it actually profitable over a proper stretch of time, or has it just had a good few weeks?

Most people can't answer any of those. Not because they're not paying attention, because there's no way to know without running it back through what's already happened.

That's the entire job of backtesting. Not predicting the future. Just showing you the shape of what already happened, so the next losing run doesn't feel like proof it's broken.

Fair enough?