Subject: The strategy lost... so I did the opposite

Hey,

I randomly generated another football strategy.

This time:

Lay The Away Win.


So I put it into the backtesting software.


And it sucked.

Properly sucked.


If I had just looked at a few recent results and started trading it live, I could easily have convinced myself there was something there.


But the backtest killed that idea pretty quickly.


Which saved me money.


But then I thought...


If laying the away team performs that badly...

What happens if I do the exact opposite?


So I flipped it.


Instead of Lay The Away Win...

I tested Back The Away Win.


And this is where things got interesting.


In the new video, I show you:

  • How bad the original strategy was

  • What the backtesting exposed

  • Why I would never trade it

  • What happened when I reversed the idea

  • The results from backing the away team

  • And whether I now have something worth forward testing

This is the bit I love about backtesting.

Even a rubbish strategy can teach you something.


Sometimes it tells you to walk away.

Sometimes it tells you to look in the exact opposite direction.


Watch here: https://youtu.be/THmFDzLS4nQ


Martin

P.S. Turns out “this strategy is terrible” can occasionally be the start of a much better strategy.


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