Hey, Over 2.5 Goals might be one of the easiest football strategies to understand.
You need 3 goals. That’s basically it. 2-1. 3-0. 1-2. Even some ridiculous 4-4.
You win. And there are LOADS of matches you can potentially use.
Which sounds great... But there’s one fairly massive problem.
Everyone else knows which teams score loads of goals too.
So if Liverpool are playing a team that couldn’t defend a ham sandwich... You’re probably not getting some juicy 2.40 on Over 2.5. The market has already adjusted.
Which means the question isn’t really: “Will there be 3 goals?”
It’s...
“Are 3 goals MORE likely than the price suggests?”
That’s a completely different question. And it’s what I dig into in today’s podcast.
I go through the good bits of Over 2.5...
The annoying bits... The losing runs... The stats I’d test...
And exactly how I’d start backtesting it from scratch.
Have a listen here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/episodes/19684372
Martin P.S. A game finishing 2-0 after being 2-0 in the 27th minute should probably be illegal. | 
