Yo,

I did something slightly stupid for today’s video.

I put a load of Betfair football markets into a random generator…

And let it decide what strategy I should test.

It picked:

Home Win.

About as simple as it gets.

Back the home team.

But here’s the interesting bit…

Simple doesn’t necessarily mean bad.

So I loaded it into the backtesting software and started digging through the data.

Does blindly backing home teams make money?

Probably not.

But what happens when we start changing the odds?

Adding filters?

Looking for the little pockets where the results suddenly start improving?

That’s what I wanted to find out.

You can watch the full Home Win experiment here: https://youtu.be/JFK5ooDL3_w

And this is really the beauty of having the backtesting software.

You can take pretty much any random strategy idea that pops into your head…

Test it against years of matches…

And know whether it has any chance before risking your money on it.

See what happened here:

Martin