I tested a Lay The Away Team strategy. And it sucked. The backtest made that pretty clear.
No edge. Nothing I would want to put real money behind.
So that should have been the end of it.
Except I had one obvious question...
What happens if I do the exact opposite?
Instead of laying the away team... I backed them.
Same basic idea. Completely different result. And suddenly the numbers looked a LOT more interesting.
In the new podcast, I show you: How badly the original lay strategy performed Why I would not trade it What happened when I flipped the idea The profit from backing the away team The strike rate and losing runs And whether I think the new strategy is worth forward testing
This is one of the reasons I love backtesting. A bad result is not always wasted research.
Sometimes it saves you money. And sometimes it points you straight towards the better trade.
Listen here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/episodes/19729048
Martin P.S. Apparently when the data screams “do not do this”, occasionally the next question should be “what if I do the complete opposite?” | 
