Hey, I have been randomly generating football strategies again.
Which is always dangerous. This time it gave me something ridiculously simple...
Back the Home Win.
That's it. No clever entry point. No weird combination of 16 different stats.
Just back the home team to win.
Obviously, doing that blindly sounds like a fairly quick way to donate your money to the market.
But that's where the backtesting gets interesting. Because instead of immediately binning the idea, we can test it across thousands of matches...
Then start looking for where the edge might actually be hiding. In the new podcast, I show you: What happened when we backed every home win The overall profit and ROI The losing runs Which leagues stood out The filters that changed the results And whether we ended up with something I'd actually forward test
This is one of my favourite types of experiment. Start with something stupidly simple. Then let the numbers tell you what to do next.
Listen here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/episodes/19657835
Martin P.S. Apparently “the home team has the crowd behind them” isn't quite enough research on its own. | 
