Softening Employment Strengthens Case for Cuts
All attention is now on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with speculation mounting that a rate cut could be imminent. While inflation remains mixed—producer prices cooling but consumer costs inching higher—the softening labor market is increasingly influencing monetary policy. Jobless claims have reached a multi-year high, signaling that restrictive policy may finally ease.

Mortgage Rates Retreat to Eleven-Month Low
Mortgage costs have fallen sharply, with the average 30-year fixed loan sliding to 6.35%. This marks the first time in nearly a year that rates have dropped below 6.5%. The decline has already spurred a jump in mortgage applications, and home sales are likely to follow, though homeowners holding ultra-low fixed rates remain reluctant to list.

Housing Market Balances Unevenly
Nationally, the housing market has shifted toward greater balance between buyers and sellers. Yet regional disparities are striking: seven of the largest metros now favor buyers, twenty-three are balanced, and twenty remain firmly in seller’s market territory. Newly listed homes fell by nearly 2%, the steepest annual decline since January, underscoring seller caution.

Regional Heat Creates Pockets of Strength
Despite flattening national prices, the hottest markets—concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest—continue to see robust demand, with listing prices climbing by 3.6%. Interestingly, affordability still drives activity in certain regions, where homes priced below $300,000 attract vigorous buyer interest.

Climate Risks Add New Pressures
Beyond rates and inventory, climate concerns are reshaping the housing landscape. More than $12 trillion in real estate value is exposed to severe risks from flooding, storms, and wildfires. Insurance costs are escalating, with many homeowners fearing coverage could soon become unattainable. For buyers and investors alike, climate resilience is emerging as a decisive factor in long-term value.