Subject: May Newsletter - Where will you buy your gear in the future?

Hi Friend,

Welcome to my May 2015 Newsletter.

Many of you buy your music and audio gear from Guitar Center, and if you do you know that it can be a frustrating experience.

The deals aren't as good as they used to be, it's tough to find a knowledgeable salesman, and the stores just don't have the inventory that they used to have.

If you've not been following along, GC has gone from a typical locally owned music store to a big box store thanks to some Wall Street financial engineering, and that could mean that the whole thing is going to collapse in the near future.

If you shop there, you should know what you're dealing with.

Let's get into it.

Why Guitar Center Is On The Financial Brink
Guitar Center transitioned into a public company in 1997, and that's when the trouble began. Here's a very brief synopsis of what went on.

1. In 2007 GC was taken private by Bain Capital. Yes, that's the same company that Mitt Romney owned. They did what all financial vultures do; cashed the founders out, put in a relatively small bit of cash, and loaded the company up with $1.2 billion of debt (that's Billion with a B).

2. The idea was to flip it. Just like buying a house, fixing it up, and selling it at a profit, that's what the Bain guys were looking to do. They ran into two big problems though:
   a. The whole idea was to expand into Europe but it was more difficult than they imagined so it never happened.
   b. The economy crashed in 2008.

3. Bain couldn't pay the bills. They had this huge $600+ million ballon payment due that they kept pushing into the future. To make its bottom line look better, they squeezed their vendors (the manufactures that supplied them) for better terms, lowered salesman's commissioned, cut their inventory back, and sold Musician's Friend, but it still wasn't enough.

4. New management took over. When Bain couldn't make the big balloon payment, its biggest debtor, Ares Management, took over last year and that's when the slashing really began. The company still continues to open stores, but that's just another bit of financial engineering that won't come home to roost until next year.

What's It All Mean?
5. GC is preparing for bankruptcy. It's a miserable time to be a GC employee. Hours have been slashed, commissions cut to 0.25%, and even deals on gear are pretty much gone. Many look at this as "liquidation staffing."

6. If the employees aren't happy, neither are the customers. Customers have been complaining for a long time about the treatment they get, but you're going to see a whole new level of indifference in the coming days.

7. GC will go bankrupt and either die or resurrect for the better. If it dies, then a whole new set of small local music stores will rise from the ashes and we'll all be better for it, or it may come out of it stronger and better than before. Either way, the customer (us) will win in the end. It just might take some time to get there.

The Moral - this industry's too small for public companies and big box stores. Music has to have a soul to be good, and we expect the places that serve us to have a piece of that same soul. Guitar Center as it stands does not.

Expect some big changes by the end of the year.

For a really good read on the subject, check out Eric Garland's many articles on GC. He's a financial analyst by day, and a great bass player. Also check him out on my Inner Circle podcast.
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Have a great rest of May,

Bobby
4109 Burbank Blvd, Burbank, CA 91505, United States
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